Hi Canie. It is true that a lot isn’t being said about the status of Mammoth Lakes and the next major quake in California, but I don’t think it’s because of politics. The truth of the matter is that they, the seismologist, volcanologists and geologist don’t really know when the next major quake will strike in California. They have an approximate idea as to where, but not the when. The same thing applies to Long Valley Caldera. You cry wolf to many times and when the real one comes along no one is going to listen.

The big difference between EQF and Jim Berkland, Shan and many others is that they are up front with their predictions. They don’t hide behind some cloak of secrecy making claims of being able to predict quakes while at the same time not showing any proof of it. They make their predictions and let the chips fall where they may.

GeoForecasters is pretty much in the same boat, but for a different reason. They are up front with their predictions, but not the method. The method is a solid one, but still needs a lot research before it can be used with any high degree of accuracy when it comes to predicting the next major quake. When I was give permission to use it in a public forum the thing that bothered be the most was that I knew that any one of those forecast could have been a large quake. The truth of the matter is that I didn’t know then and I don’t know now. There was only one time I had a pretty good idea was when you and I teamed up for 4 possible quakes in the West Pacific Ocean. I’m sure you remember, but if not here it is again.

Hi All. I thought this might be a good time to show what team work can do. Canie and I teamed up to get this one. The results was an M>7.0 quake near the Solomon Islands on 12/23/2001.

Hi Canie. There are four possible locations. Fiji Islands, Kermadec Islands, Solomon Islands and New Britain.

If a quake of the size you mentioned were to occur it would occur between 12/17/2001 and 12/23/2001.

For the Fiji Islands it would be at 33.8S/179.0W

For the Kermadec Islands it would be at 32.7S/178.2W

For the Solomon Islands it would be at 9.9S/159.1E

For New Britain it would be at 6.6S/151.7E

It’s not likely that all of these areas will have a quake of the magnitude you stated, but there is a good chance that at least one of them could. Anyway here is a good chance to combine two different types of data to see if this could result in an accurate forecast. Take Care…Don in creepy town

Hi Canie. By the way the distance between the areas I gave for the Solomon Island quake and the actual epicenter of the quake is 44.5268Km. Not bad, not bad at all for the combining of two different data’s. Hope you post again when you see the same thing. Take Care…Don in creepy town

As you well know this is the only time I, we, made a forecast for a large quake. The data you gave me was what made it possible. It was the combining of two different disciplines that made it possible. In my opinion that is what’s lacking now. Everyone has their own ideas as to what works and what won’t work. In doing so they reject just about anything else. Take Care…Don in creepy town