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| Wrong type storm? |
If anyone is wondering why I have been posting so many notes, the reason is that it has taken this long to get into a position to be able to begin moving forward rapidly with these different types of research. I have been working on these earthquake forecasting efforts for about 15 years. And some of the most important steps which involved getting my computers and computer programs running in forms where they were efficient and dependable just got finished. Last weekend I spent an entire day learning how to get the U.S. Navy's MICA program to function as a subroutine for other programs and generate subsolar, sublunar, and just about any type of celestial data on demand in less than a second. And it was well worth the effort. Another very important step has involved making contact with other similarly minded earthquake forecasting personnel around the world. THE WRONG TYPE STORM? Up until now I haven't tried to keep track of the solar storm activity - earthquake triggering picture. But I am now in a position to do that. And Canie pointed out that there are opinions that proton storms suppress earthquake triggering and electron storms encourage it. I believe that such opinions might be a good match for some research that was done by Freund and his colleagues at NASA: http://amesnews.arc.nasa.gov/releases/2001/01-100AR.html If I understand things correctly, they found that before an earthquake the rock layers could generate positive charges which would move towards the surface of the Earth at great speeds. And logic would suggest that if there were a geomagnetic storm at that time which was saturated with protons (positive charges) then the pressure from the storm might repress that positive charge movement in the ground and reduce earthquake activity.Similarly, an electron storm would tend to accelerate the movement of the positive charges towards the surface and enhance earthquake triggering. This latest storrm looked to me like it had a surge of proton activity. Electron populations were depleted. And so what that would mean as that we should probably NOT be seeing any earthquake activity as a result of the storm, as intense as it was. On the other hand, I detected an especially strong earthquake warning type signal right in the middle of that storm. So I myself am interested in seeing what will happen. It may be that this type of information is crucially important to interpreting these types of warning signals. Ear Tone activity has been a little above normal lately. But is has been nowhere near what it can be at times. A few signals have been detected each day. There have been times when more than a half dozen were detected in a day. And I presently suspect that these are the times when there are strong electron storms. So, if we want to see some significant amounts of earthquake triggering enhancement then perhaps we need to start watching for strong electron storms. It should be possible to monitor them by watching that Web site that Canie mentioned. And perhaps it would even be possible to get on a mailing list to have that type of information sent out automatically by e-mail. I am going to check on that. |
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