Hi All,

For the past five years I've been on my own little research project to understand why public earthquake prediction has not occurred successfully anywhere on Earth. It has taken me to see people I never expected to meet, to keep an open mind, sit on all sides of the fence and come to a reasonable conclusion to this quest.

While I am not going to name any names, I will tell you I was as close as signing a final contract three years ago with a world renown predictive scientist to set up a non-profit earthquake prediction facility in Petaluma. At that time I had contacts throughout the city and from the Mayor to the President of the Chamber of Commerce, the foundation was there to support a major effort to raise funds for this facility.

While I possess very good business skills, the scientist in question was very good at his skills as well, or so I thought at the time. After further investigation with opinions from those inside the science community, and no answers to some important questions, I had some doubts, but I was willing to go ahead.

The scientist and I were at loggerheads more often than not and frequently lost communications because of one silly issue to the next. In the end, he backed out, stating that he thought I might make a social faux pas by not addressing someone as Doctor so and so. While I am positive, I have no problems with social issues as I am very skilled in social in all circles, I don't think he was willing to share the limelight with a woman, even one who would raise funding on her own for his personal program.

One day, I accidentally came face to face with another scientist I had wanted to meet for a long time. He had been heavily involved in prediction for many years, but he told to forget about it and work on addressing earthquake safety and awareness concerns. As they say, everything happens for a reason and I will never regret this chance meeting, if that was what it really was. It has taken me down a new path, but hasn't denied my curiosity about prediction.

I made contact with Dr. Varatsos of VAN once to hear his opinions on his program, but he refused to communicate other than to hear what I had in mind. I'm sorry about that, because he isn't young now, and I hope before he goes someone will be privileged enough to hear his story.

My journey is not over yet as I still have much to learn, but I have always kept an open mind in regard to all prediction methods and I think I know enough now to realize what is adequate or otherwise. From the scientists to the amateurs emerges, darkness and light. So far as I have seen, no one person, instrument, method or theory is adequate.

I have many questions yet to be answered and some of them in the social sense. I wonder if we in America who have not proven on our own shores that we are capable of producing good solid results, if we have a right to infringe our warnings on other countries and peoples? If someone from another country issued an earthquake warning for us, had no proven method, had no track record and no credentials, how would we feel about that warning? These to me are serious concerns.

I think I dabble in ear tone prediction just because it is an oddity and I want to see if I can get more right than wrong. As I said yesterday, I do not believe this program has any chance of being accepted anywhere, and I live with that limitation in acceptance. I can play baseball too, but I'm not a home run hitter every time either, but I do enjoy a good game.

We have a long way to go if we will ever achieve a method of earthquake prediction that works all of the time, everywhere. But we can learn as we go and enjoy meeting those of interest.

I have made a firm commitment to earthquake safety, awareness and education. I believe after three years I have added something that is a natural from my background as a loss prevention specialist. I see things that other people do not because I was trained to do so. So I'll keep trucking along and do what I can with the limitations I have, in time and funding. I'll be back in Sacramento again, on June 30th to address the Housing Committee of the Senate.

Petra - Sharing A Bird's Eye View on Prediction

• The Seismic Safety Zone