Hi All,

Today a topic was brought forward on this board and I think perhaps we should air this out and maybe provide some readers with some understanding of the broader picture in regard to public earthquake prediction.

This is regarding the loose term of political interference in public earthquake prediction. An example might be that someone thinks they know that an earthquake may occur in Taiwan and they feel strongly the people in the region must be advised. So they send a warning through an emissary. However, when the emissary delivers the warning to government officials, they check with their own geo-scientists and finds there is no evidence this event may occur and they decline to issue a warning.

The key ingredient in the declination first is because the person who wishes the prediction to become public has no validated prediction record. The second of course is that there is no scientific evidence to support the claim and thirdly, those who may release warnings to the public have to live with the consequences of what may happen whether the earthquake arrives or not.

However, we can take the opposite approach and have a scientist with a 75% accuracy record who also approaches a government and asks them to issue a public prediction. The government most likely will not do so, because of 25% margin of error, but they might place their emergency rescue units on notice.

There is no political influence in this process. It really is a matter of common sense and trying to make an assessment of the situation.

Today though what we do see by way of political influence is after a devastating earthquake occurs and many lives are lost, governments do go after shoddy contractors who cut corners when building and they go to jail.

The focus as I've reiterated so many times is that there is always time for earthquake awareness and preparation. In Istambul now they know that at some point in time there is going to be a major earthquake and some are urging building inspections and upgrades to avoid a huge disaster. As to whether people will act upon this advice is unknown. Izmit had a one year notice of their impending earthquake and no one acted on it. And we who live in California in the majority are as apathetic as anyone anywhere.

We may all be in a losing situation, but it is the choice of the individual as to whether they chose to live in a hazardous area or not. We could pack up and go elsewhere, but we may be moving to a place which may have a threat from another source, such as tornados.

Earthquake prediction will always be as a double-edged sword, to be right in advance may save some lives, but to be wrong will bring the opposite results, such as the costs of lost labor if people do not arrive at work and if you are wrong the next time no one is going to believe you.

And even without the scientific experience we might use birds as our early warning system. The birds always stop singing before an earthquake occurs, 100% of the time. So one day the government is advised and they go ahead and issue a warning to the public and nothing happens. There is no guarantee that any method via people or animals or instruments will make it 100% of the time. The odds may be in favor of, but it is not foolproof.

In closing I think we should imagine ourselves sitting in the seat of the person who has to make the choice to warn citizens. It has such a high degree of responsibility, few in the world would wish to sit there and no matter what happens someone will find an exception to your decisions.

Petra

• The Seismic Safety Zone