Hi Chris,

While we can all study the long term probability maps for major faults, so often we forget about quakes which occur in unexpected locations, which are surely damaging. I think a classic example is the Napa 5.2 quake which produced 15 million in damages and one death from heart failure.

Today I think about the lone 5.0 quake in Bolinas a few years ago, the 4.2 in Bennett Valley and what about the strange tennis of quakes going on between Pacifica and Alameda? What's that all about? Other than the Bolinas event, we haven't had any 5's or 6's in the East Bay Bay Area and the population density is so immense. So much infrastructure and faults that are shallow. These are the area's the can produce significant damage with only a 5.0. I hate to even think about it. Even with a 4.2 some years ago in Albany there were shattered windows all over the place.

I talk to a lot of people about earthquakes and the general consenus is that because we've had a lot of small quakes there won't be any big quakes in the foreseeable future. Then there is the minority camp which understands these small quakes aren't relieving any stress and they understand we are indeed living on borrowed time.

Not long after Loma Prieta the USGS told us they thought within 5 years there would be a significant quake on the Hayward Fault because of mirroring events of the past. Well, we are 14 years and counting and no mirror quake has arrived.

I have a sense of uneasiness about what is to come, but it just may be because of the larger global quakes in the past few days and nothing more. More than likely, these local events will drop off the maps and we'll be twiddling our thumbs wondering when the next 3 will arrive.

As for the beach, you may not recall that the beaches here are very cold. Unless you are having inland temperatures of at least 100 degrees or more, the beach is a miserable place to go. Its always foggy or windy out there and the water is cold as ice. The Russians suffered through a miserable climate when they were at Fort Ross in the 1800's. Nothing's changed.

Petra