Don, a couple of decades ago I took a meteorology class and we had an intercollegiate weather forecasting contest-for a particular city each day or week, I forget, before, say, 6 PM the day before, you had to predict the high temperature and precipitation for the nect day. You could just do "persistance", which means that the high temperature and precipitation will be the same as the day before. Persistance usually beat out other forecasts. So, for your predictions to be more interesting to me, it helps to know their basis. At least EQF says what his basis is, even if you all complain that he does not do predictions. The Geysers had been very active before your prediction, including, I think, M3s. So, it looks like you thought it would lead to something a little bigger, which it did. While a little interesting, it would be more interesting to discuss why Geysers might be more generally active the last week or so. Speaking of EQF, who I usually do not respond to, his post the other day about delays in triggering from tides may have been on the mark-I had just discussed this with a seismologist the day before he posted-talking about the Mid Continent earthquakes, the seismologist said that they had looked har at tides, and you tend not to get any correlation, but that you might want to look at resolved stresses on a particular fault with a particular orientation, and then look at delays....
Just in case you think I'm being too negative, your informative posts on faults and seismicity generally are interesting. Chris