Posted by Don in Hollister on April 24, 2003 at 08:55:09:
Hi Chris. I reread my post and I can see where you got the impression that it was a 100% sure thing that it will occur. I apologize for that. The main reason for wanting that change is that a lot of people were thinking they had 30 years to get ready for a quake. They said there was a 62% chance of it occurring between the years 2003 and 2029. The in the next 30 years bit was based on the average homeowners mortgage and not a scientific fact. Take Care…Don in creepy town The following is from the San Francisco Chronicle. “In a survey of single-family homes in 17 Bay Area communities, ABAG found that few homeowners are retrofitting and those who are tend to have college degrees and higher incomes. Yet the report also noted that many homeowners who think they have completed a seismic upgrade have not done an adequate job of bolting their foundations and bracing their cripple walls with plywood. Although Berkeley has the Bay Area's highest retrofit rate of homes at 38 percent, a result largely of a host of city-sponsored financial incentives, 44 percent of the city's homeowners have done only partial work. Los Gatos has the second best record, with 20 percent of its homes earthquake-resistant. The cities of Santa Clara and Napa placed last in the survey, with only 3 percent of their homeowners having performed adequate retrofitting.”
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