Using the right types of earthquake triggering research data
Posted by EQF on February 05, 2003 at 01:27:02:

I have running conversations going with a number of geophysics experts in different forums such as Newsgroups and e-mail. This is much of the text of one of my latest Newsgroup reports which was addressed to one of those people regarding earthquake triggering processes. The references to Japan university research papers include the one in the EarthWaves board note to which this present report is attached.


LOOKING AT EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING PROCESSES USING THE RIGHT TYPES OF DATA

Something that I have been saying is that it appears to me that one of the main reasons that scientists around the world do not already know exactly how earthquakes are being triggered is because they have been looking at the wrong types of data all these years. If so, then what are the right types of data? That subject will be discussed in this report.

EARTHQUAKES AND THE SOLID EARTH TIDE

If I understood them correctly, those Japan university reports you pointed to involved comparing earthquake occurrence times with Solid Earth Tide data. However, my own data suggest to me that as those researchers apparently discovered, such comparisons would be successful with only some earthquakes.

Instead, my data indicate to me that the sun and moon gravities may be creating “Pressure Waves” (for lack of a better term) which travel from east to west in the Earth’s crust much like Solid Earth Tide waves and to some extent like ocean waves. And when a Pressure Wave crest or trough hits an already highly strained fault zone at just the right time and angle it can trigger an earthquake.

Pressure Wave crests and troughs may exist at the same locations as Solid Earth Tide wave crests and troughs as was seen with those Japan university research studies, or at the same locations as ocean tide wave troughs as was seen with that Axial volcano area related June, 2002 Geology magazine publication. But often they do not. As a result you cannot simply use ocean tide or Solid Earth Tide data in order to determine how a good percentage of our earthquakes are being triggered.

THE RIGHT TYPES OF DATA TO EXAMINE

When a powerful earthquake occurs I myself can now look at its occurrence time and tell where the sun and moon were in the sky at that time, the location where their combined gravitational pulls was strongest on the surface of the Earth (roughly I believe), their distance from the Earth, how strong their gravitational pulls were on the Earth, the locations of some ocean tide crests and troughs, various types of Solid Earth Tide data, and use MICA program data to determine the location of the Earth in space versus the J2000 reference system and to generate certain other types of data.

Other researchers can probably also generate most of those types of data with the exception of that last group which I will describe here.

CHANGES IN EARTH ACCELERATION IN SPACE – THE “IMPULSE”

To better understand this section you can try reading the following report:

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/111.html#Acceleration

I believe that the MICA program generates X, Y, and Z axis data for the location of the Earth in space at given points in time relative to the J2000 reference system. With that system the Y axis is always roughly a line connecting the center of the Earth and the center of the sun at around January 1 of each year. I now have a program which uses those data to generate the following types of information. And I should add that I had some help with this from two other people who are better at math than I am.

Y axis. Draw a line between the center of the sun and the point on the Earth equator which is closest to the sun. Then extend that line through the center of the Earth to the point on the equator on the opposite side. That is your “Y” axis.

X axis. Draw a line perpendicular to that line which goes from a point on the equator, through the center of the Earth, and then to the opposite side on the equator. That is your “X” axis.

Z axis. Draw a line between the Earth’s North and South Poles. That is your “Z” axis.

What you then have is a reference system which has an X – Y plane through the center of the Earth and its equator, and which has its Y axis always pointing towards the sun. My program takes MICA program Earth location data and converts them to that reference system. It will generate and plot those X, Y and Z data for the years 2001, 2002, and 2003 for changes in the Earth locations (its velocity), changes in its velocity (its acceleration), and changes in its acceleration (the “Impulse” as one researcher calls it).

Additionally, the Y axis point on the Earth equator which is always closest to the sun can be rotated through 360 longitude degrees, and the plotted data will instantly change to show how the new X and Y axis data look. The Z axis North – South Pole data always remain the same.

What I have been doing lately is marking the occurrence times of powerful earthquakes etc. on those X, Y, and Z axis Impulse data plots. And that X and Y axis rotation feature makes it possible to determine how to best orient the direction of the Impulse forces etc. to show how the earthquake might have been triggered. For example, two earthquakes which occurred in the same area might be examined And the times of both would place them a little to one side or the other of two X axis Impulse peaks or troughs. That longitude direction adjustment can be made and they will then both be directly on an X axis peak or tough indicating what the important triggering force direction for both of them might have been.

It is my opinion that those type data might be crucially important to research efforts aimed at determining how earthquakes are being triggered. And so I have the following question:

QUESTION: What percentage of earthquake researchers around the world have a computer program which will generate those types of adjustable, Earth equator based velocity, acceleration, and “Impulse” data?

As far as I am presently aware, my program is the only one anywhere which can generate them. I believe that most Solid Earth Tide programs generate data for a specific location on the surface of or inside the Earth at a time. The program that I just described does that for the entire Earth with the assumption that it is a rigid body.

Perhaps you or some other Newsgroup reader will respond that there are other people who have a program like that. But if most earthquake researchers do not have one, as I expect is the case, then that is what I mean when I propose that they may have been looking at the wrong types of data all these years.

Finally, it would presently be difficult for me to ship copies of that program to other researchers. It is computer spreadsheet program which is more than 7 million bytes in size. It would need some adjustments so that other people could easily use it. And various copyright issues might need to be considered. If possible I am planning to try to eventually make the program available to people through some research organization if I can locate one interested in such an effort.

These are expressions of personal opinion.