At the heart of these discussions there appears to me to be a fundamental difference in what various parties expect from a “valid” earthquake forecast. For me the goal is not to “prove” that they can be forecast but rather to save some lives.

Disaster mitigation groups need time to respond to reports of a destructive earthquake. And saved days, hours, and perhaps even response time minutes can be converted into saved lives. What those people have told me in the past is that they would be happy if someone could simply tell them when they need to get ready to respond to an earthquake even if they do not know precisely when and where it will occur and what its magnitude will be.

My possible Iran – Afghanistan forecast posted to a public forum on May 27, 1998 let people around the world know that they should be at least thinking about a possible earthquake in that part of the world. However, I found reading reports about that particular earthquake to be personally upsetting. It occurred in an area where there was a fierce civil war in progress. Disaster response personnel had a difficult time getting permission from the combatants to enter the area. And the weather was so bad that even rescue helicopters could not safely fly in order to deliver medicine or try to determine how widespread the damage might be. As a result my forecast might not have accomplished very much.