Petra;

Your point is valid if and only if the predictor has a proven track record.

And that means he has to make enough predictions to be sure he's right before he goes public.

The hurricane situation works because we know it can be done within certain margins of success but the earthquake predictor has no such track record to support him.

Case in point, Iben Browning with his New Madrid prediction. He had good reason (he thought) for his prediction but he was wrong and bunches of money were spent on it before it was over.

Roger