Hi Randall,

Your post title kind of says it all. Things didn't go according to your intuition. Mind you I have no problem with people using intuition, not in the least, but if we look at where this string started it was based on instrumentation, not intuition.

This is where caution on message boards is always best. For the person who may not have full knowledge of various types of seismic events, it almost sounded scary. Like some big slab of California was going to move around under peoples feet and it might leave some people feeling uncomfortable with this kind of occurrence.

As I've been watching CA moving round for at least four years, its long enough to let me know these little clusters or swarms occur in the Coso Region and in many other locales in California. They don't lead to the big earthquakes people fear, but just twenty or so quakes and then its over. No big deal.

I'm quite pleased with your results in being able to isolate the area. That's very good, but as for a moderate to large silent quake event, I don't think it occurred this time. However, taking what you have already and using it as an earthquake forecast would be a really good idea. Forecasting allows you the latitude not to be so specific, but rather issue a head's up alert that you think something of a small to moderate nature may occur in a given area. Its not as strong as an actual prediction, but surely worthy of an effort.

I like Frank and have been very proud of the work he has done. He did put out a warning three days before the Hector Mines quake and was right on target. So yes, he does have a track record of success. As to what his total track record is I have no knowledge of, but he is doing something positive and I'm very pleased.

So how about trying your hand in forecasting and see where it leads. You might find it very interesting.

Cheers! Petra