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Re: Don's quakes - update
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Posted by Lowell on September 28, 2002 at 20:13:54:
Canie, Sorry I missed your prediction in Chris' contest. I did read it now and you are correct to note it was published before Don's. If I were in the earthquake forecasting mode, my forecast based on the hurricane motion would have been pretty much the same as yours, so I was happy to see that these events occurred pretty much as forecast, even if they were somewhat smaller than expected. Hurricane Isidore had been expected (at the time of your forecast) to hit New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane - big enough to trigger an event the size you had anticipated (IMHO). Only that evening did it become less intense and hit only as a marginal hurricane. The resulting quakes in Mexico would have been expected to be smaller as they were. IMHO the earthquakes and precursory ULF signs in southern California were also related to Hurricane Isidore. But this remains to be shown in a mathematical context.
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