Just to put an example on my previous comments - I checked the southern California data in the area "east of Los Angeles from 33-35N
115-118W for the past 3 months (9 10-day periods) and found only one event in the region of Ml>=3 during this period from April 2 to July 2, 2002, the aforementioned Ml 4.4 on April 5.
Using this time frame, which is more reasonable in my opinion because it tests the current seismicity of the area, and not the seismicity for months and years after Landers, Big Bear and Hector Mine with all their aftershocks, the probability is that a 10 -day
period will have a Ml>=3 event 1/9th of the time - about 0.11 or 11% at the time of this earthquake.
Whatever parameters 2-cents used, I do not believe they were relevant to the CURRENT seismicity of the area.