Hi Don:

Interesting post.

"random chance" is tricky. If I had a data catalog with 2 million years worth of data would I get the same answer ? Maybe ...maybe not.

There's also the unstated premise that historical probability is equivalent to future probability.
While one could argue that that's all the data we have to go on for now ...it's not clear that that is a valid conclusion. Hey maybe I could have a mag. 8 go off in my backyard (which is in a generally seismically relative quiet area per the history files). Maybe there is a local condition which works in conjunction with "other factors" to create the quake...then again maybe not.

Was the Loma Prieta quake on the forecast list that Lowell posted here (awhile back) ? I's be interested in seeing where else it was forecasted too.

.02