Hi Joan,

Alan had given a 30.5% probability when the Hector sequence wasn't included. I have reservations about the formula that Alan is using though since its basically an average of past history and all aftershock sequences are not the same and as far as I can tell, the formula isn't adjustable. At any rate, its something thats available in order to add some reasonableness to the probability calculations.

Lately, Hector has been pretty quiet as far as M4's go.

This has already hit with the Hector M3.6 this morning. I'm not sure whether or not this is it. My primary hasn't given me any indications. Secondaries were slightly active this morning prior to the Hector M3.6 but then were quiet tonight in 70% of the locations that were active last night. So, again, I'm not sure if the Hector M3.6 was totally responsible for all the secondary activity.

Dennis