My geophysicist wife is leaving Athens this AM after spending a couple of days talking to geoscientists about surveying parts of the Aegean Sea-for active faults. The NEIC shows it as a 5.3 or 5.4 about 200 km south of Athens. The last time she went to Greece for meeting like this was the beginning of Aug last summer-there was a M6.6 or something like that in Aegean Sea (I was there that time also-but we did not feel it). So, statistically there is 100% chance that there will be a M5.3 or larger earthquake in Aegean Sea when my wife is in Greece. The structure tectonics of Aegean Sea and Marmara Sea Turkey are very interesting-Marmara Sea is surpisingly like the southern California margin, and Aegean Sea has several strands of the right-lateral North Anatolian fault system terminating into clockwise rotating blocks of mainland Greece (e.g., James Jackson et al), again like California, this time California during Miocene time (e.g., 15 Million years ago=middle Miocene).
Chris