Tustin.

All three predictions based on ear tones and intuition. I just look at the map as if it were an Ouiji Board and sort of "feel" my way to the location I think might have the appropriate-sized earthquake. I know that sounds as if I'm a candidate for basket weaving, but that's how I work, and I am often right, even though I don't post all the predictions I make.

More importantly, as I don't post them, they don't count in terms of scoring or reliability, as they would come off as postdictions, which are really tacky and tend to obscure one's track record. I don't care as much about my track record as I do about refining my prediction skills (mostly non-scientific).

As I hone my skills, I will post predictions more regularly and let either Roger or Chris, our resident statisticians, decide whether or not my forecasting abilities are average, above average, or below. (I will also defer to them if they find my skills are average or below, thus not wasting others' time and energy, or taking up bandwidth.) I just need to know, for my own benefit (and perhaps others') whether I'm actually on to something.

I am doing this for my own research as I am finding my way through the maze of variables. When I have my system more perfected, I will start posting predictions more often.

Still, I have to admit I cannot resist a contest. :-)

As for the ear tones, I send them to Don and let him do the analysis. I have not been recording them long enough (only about a year) to notice any particular pattern, but Don tells me he has identified mine, and it is consistent with some others'.* He also sees strong correspondencies to two others' ear tones that synch up with mine. I find that fascinating.

Lowell, glad to see you back up and running. Moving is hard, I know. It takes months to really get settled in to a new house.

Now if only we could coax Dennis Gentry to start posting again. I remember he had probems with one particular person on this board, but I believe that person has left. So Dennis, if you are reading this, please come back and post your predictions; a lot of us miss you.

And Canie, if you have Dennis's email address, would you please send him this message of mine? Many of us not only miss his predictions but respect his privacy re: the methodology he employs. IMHO, he has a good accuracy rate, and his departure was a real loss to the board.

I also "feel" a 3+ for Morgan Hill, so although it is not in S. Cal, I can't ignore it. You may treat it as a separate forecast, if you wish. The most likely places in Northern California for a 3+, such as the Geysers, Mammoth, and aftershocks of the Gilroy earthquake, I choose not to mention, as their frequencies are too obvious to make a prediction challenging. In all honesty, a 3+ in Morgan Hill might even be considered an aftershock to the Gilroy earthquake, and not count by my standards. Basing predictions on what may be foreshocks flies in my book; basing predictions on the inevitable aftershock sequence of what appears to be a main even is easy, and therefore, not terribly viable in terms of prediction.

Hope you all had a good weekend. We did. I'm particulary happy that Don's Bay Area window has closed. I can now put the valuables/sentimentalites back on my shelves and not worry too much until his, or someone else's prediction hits this board.

BTW, Don, with your accuracy rate, I for one want to thank you for all the advisories, warnings, and predictions you have posted (and Lowell, this goes for you too). I always take your advisories seriously, and they are very helpful to my peace of mind. If there's one thing I hate, it's being caught off guard. Any reliable "heads up" is always appreciated.

Well, that's enough from me for the night.

Adios, y hasta maņana.

Cathryn

*Don, if you could please send me my ear tone locations via email, I'd appreciate it. I know you told me over the phone the other night, but as I was coming off a migraine and still on pain killers, I was too spacey to write them down.

No chat tonight; I am dog tired from a whole day out with kids and dogs, and am turning in early.

Thanks.

C.