Antonio,
Roger Hunter is on vacation for several weeks. I am sure he will be happy
to evaluate your forecast when he returns. It will probably be a near-hit, but
not sure of the probabilities. Your magnitude limits is higher than the
occurrence, and it is a pretty long window of opportunity - 11 days, plus
the fact that the event occurred just on the edge of the 200 km range given
suggests that the probability of random occurrence would be rather high and
the significance of the forecast not as strong as might first be supposed.
Anyway, will have to wait for Roger's return to find out.