Hi all;

CNSS has finally added NEIC data so I thought I'd run the tax
day contest evaluation to see if there were any surprises.

I don't recall the actual winner but this whole exercise is a good example of why evaluation must be postponed.

My program is not well suited to contests. I think in the future I will restrict it to providing probabilities for the contestants. That will let me use a larger database and give (hopefully) better answers.

 1    Carol
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 37.8   -122.6  2.5 9.9 50 Prob. 4.10%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/04/14 11:36:57.33  37.5982 -122.4497         26.0  62.8%
2002/04/14 17:19:00.94  37.5495 -118.8008 2.68   335.2  94.4%
2002/04/14 23:01:40.68  38.8035 -122.7853 2.74   112.7  40.2%
2002/04/15 04:53:34.57  40.3277 -121.6768        291.9  100%
2002/04/15 22:57:00.89  38.8450 -122.8105 3.41   117.5  46.1%
2002/04/16 07:26:52.35  37.5982 -122.4495         26.0  62.8%
2002/04/16 08:43:37.53  37.6015 -122.4615         25.2  62.8%
2002/04/16 10:15:31.60  37.0357 -117.9760 3.05   416.7  98.5%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/15 04:53:34.57  40.3277 -121.6768           .50
 Best dist 2002/04/16 08:43:37.53  37.6015 -122.4615         25.19
 Best size 2002/04/15 22:57:00.89  38.8450 -122.8105 3.41     3.41
 Best prob 2002/04/14 23:01:40.68  38.8035 -122.7853 2.74    40.230%

 2    Carol
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.26  -116.35 2.5 9.9 50 Prob. 19.5%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/04/14 17:19:00.94  37.5495 -118.8008 2.68   525.6  99.1%
2002/04/16 03:49:20.81  32.8998 -115.5213 2.69    86.9  48.6%
2002/04/16 10:15:31.60  37.0357 -117.9760 3.05   444.7  98.0%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/16 03:49:20.81  32.8998 -115.5213 2.69      .50
 Best dist 2002/04/16 03:49:20.81  32.8998 -115.5213 2.69    86.91
 Best size 2002/04/16 10:15:31.60  37.0357 -117.9760 3.05     3.05
 Best prob 2002/04/16 03:49:20.81  32.8998 -115.5213 2.69    48.604%

 3     Cathryn
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 17.436 -64.53  4.6 6   120 Prob. 0.164%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 4     Cathryn
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.666 -95.54762   3   60 Prob. 0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 5     Petra Challus
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 37.69  -91.8   1.2 2.2 166.7 Prob. 0.164%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 6    Petra Challus
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.4   -94.2   1.2 2.2 166.7 Prob.0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 7    Don Unofficial
2002/4 /11 - 2002/4 /15 -39    174.3   3   4   65 Prob. 8.74%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/04/14 23:49:44.00 -39.9200  174.4300        102.8  41.2%
2002/04/16 10:12:50.90 -38.9200  174.7100         36.5  58.6%
2002/04/16 10:59:17.20 -38.8200  175.8900 4.30   138.9  70.6%
2002/04/16 10:59:17.20 -38.8200  175.8900        138.9  82.6%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/14 23:49:44.00 -39.9200  174.4300           .50
 Best dist 2002/04/16 10:12:50.90 -38.9200  174.7100         36.52
 Best size 2002/04/16 10:59:17.20 -38.8200  175.8900 4.30     4.30
 Best prob 2002/04/14 23:49:44.00 -39.9200  174.4300         41.257%

Roger

PS: Tomorrow is my last day until May 15th.
Vacation!!