Part of the point of the contest was to take information that may be reliable based
on past history (i.e. Don's advisory) and see if the sensitives on this board could use
this as a seed to germinate a more reliable forecast. There is nothing wrong with
using Don's information as a base, in fact it is encouraged.
I have also posted some data URL's (above) to unusual activity being monitored by USGS
instruments at Parkfield and San Francisco Bay during the geomagnetic storms
of the past several days. This might help pinpoint the most likely events. I think it is
advisable to use all information available and then let your sensitivities (ESP if you will)
lead you from there.