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Re: Hollister Quake
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Posted by Lowell on April 19, 2002 at 08:29:36:
Wrong on several counts this time Don. First - you did post a forecast relating to this area - your latest forecast #14972 was for an event at 36.7N 121.5W the exact latitude and longitude of this earthquake. See link below for the original forecast http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14972.html Second - While earthquakes do commonly occur in this region, earthquakes of Ml 3+ are not all that common. The last such within 25 km of this epicenter occurred on Feb 10, 2002, more than two months ago. In the past year, there have been 12 5-day periods during which an event of this size occurred in this area. So, if you had forecast an event of Ml>=3 your odds of success would not have been 100% but rather 1 in 5. You would have been wrong 4 out of 5 times by random guesswork.
Follow Ups:
● Re: Hollister Quake - Don In Hollister 10:14:35 - 4/19/2002 (15016) (1)
● Re: Hollister Quake - chris in suburbia 06:05:58 - 4/20/2002 (15052) (0)
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