Re: Hollister Quake
Posted by Lowell on April 19, 2002 at 08:29:36:

Wrong on several counts this time Don.
First - you did post a forecast relating to this area - your latest forecast #14972
was for an event at 36.7N 121.5W the exact latitude and longitude of this earthquake.
See link below for the original forecast
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14972.html

Second - While earthquakes do commonly occur in this region, earthquakes of
Ml 3+ are not all that common. The last such within 25 km of this epicenter occurred
on Feb 10, 2002, more than two months ago. In the past year, there have been
12 5-day periods during which an event of this size occurred in this area.
So, if you had forecast an event of Ml>=3 your odds of success would not have
been 100% but rather 1 in 5. You would have been wrong 4 out of 5 times by
random guesswork.



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Hollister Quake - Don In Hollister  10:14:35 - 4/19/2002  (15016)  (1)
        ● Re: Hollister Quake - chris in suburbia  06:05:58 - 4/20/2002  (15052)  (0)