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Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit
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Posted by Lowell on April 16, 2002 at 15:01:10:
I believe that what would slow the progress of earthquake prediction is for a group of people to post a forecast because they read somewhere else that an event was likely to occur. The only way to determine which forecast was the original and therefore which technique should be concentrated on if something should happen is to know the original source of the forecast. IF others are copying that forecast or making modifications to it, whatever techniques they are using should be considered with that in mind. The only other option is to make all forecasts privately to the EPR and talk about them after the fact. Even in medicine, there can be mass hysteria caused when one person complains of an illness and suddenly every one comes down with symptons. The purpose is to weed out the good from the bad. If a technique works then we need to look carefully at how it is done. If many people are making or revising that forecast then it becomes difficult to see through the muddied waters.
Follow Ups:
● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Roger Hunter 15:23:54 - 4/16/2002 (14939) (1)
● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Mary C. 16:38:01 - 4/16/2002 (14942) (2)
● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Canie 23:42:37 - 4/16/2002 (14956) (0)
● It was just an observation . . . . - Tony 20:39:19 - 4/16/2002 (14948) (0)
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