Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit
Posted by Lowell on April 16, 2002 at 15:01:10:

I believe that what would slow the progress of earthquake prediction is for a group
of people to post a forecast because they read somewhere else that an event was
likely to occur. The only way to determine which forecast was the original and therefore
which technique should be concentrated on if something should happen is to know
the original source of the forecast. IF others are copying that forecast or making
modifications to it, whatever techniques they are using should be considered with
that in mind.
The only other option is to make all forecasts privately to the EPR and talk about them
after the fact.
Even in medicine, there can be mass hysteria caused when one person complains of
an illness and suddenly every one comes down with symptons.

The purpose is to weed out the good from the bad. If a technique works then
we need to look carefully at how it is done. If many people are making or revising
that forecast then it becomes difficult to see through the muddied waters.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Roger Hunter  15:23:54 - 4/16/2002  (14939)  (1)
        ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Mary C.  16:38:01 - 4/16/2002  (14942)  (2)
           ● Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+) - Others follow suit - Canie  23:42:37 - 4/16/2002  (14956)  (0)
           ● It was just an observation . . . . - Tony  20:39:19 - 4/16/2002  (14948)  (0)