Re: Bay Area Earthquake Advisory (6.0+)
Posted by Petra Challus on April 15, 2002 at 21:56:41:

Hey Cowboy,

Well its about time to really test this theory of yours or whatever it is you call it. If it arrives you know I'll be lovin' it, provided its not to damaging, but on the other hand, I'm sure most of the locals won't care much for it at all.

At least with my pictures off the walls, the chances for glass breakage just got reduced by 80%. Though I have to say part of me would not be the least bit surprised and yet, I always thought we'd be looking at the Hayward Fault for the next big one. Of course, in the past two years I've changed my thinking about that alot. I've seen far to many quakes between Daly City and Bolinas to ignore the obvious.

Today's little shaker at Bodega Bay is a heads up in my way of thinking. Bolinas was the first real wake up call and then we have to look at the number of quakes off of Stewarts Point, Fort Ross and such at the other end of this somewhat seismic gap.

I hope you're right about this one. Not that I like to see damage and all, but you've rather spent a lot of time working seriously in this endeavor and if you can make a proper call on this potential quake, I think its another sign of good progress.

But just to play devils advocate, I'll match your window and up the mag to 7.0 and tell you I expect it on the San Gregario Fault between Daly City and the Presidio. I think the time line I saw running down the number 7 may be just about to reach the bottom of the scale. While the effects upon the area's you anticipate your possible 6+ may arrive, its not exactly in the same place, but the damage and shaking intensities would be similar. Just playing a hunch, my intuition or the last card in deck.

Petra