Shan;

Read the evaluation documentation from the home page of this site.

Probability is calculated from a 5 year sample of the CNSS catalog. I find how many quakes have occurred in the area you predict and get probability from that.

In a near miss case, there are outer limits set and anything inside that limit is considered as a possible match. Probability is calculated based on the radius needed to include the quake.

These are given for training purposes, so you can see that if you had predicted HERE instead of THERE or if the radius had been THAT big or the magnitude range had been different you would have had a real hit.

Roger