Posted by Lowell on April 08, 2002 at 20:29:23:
Don had a forecast out for Rhunage, PNG (Papua New Guinea) which was posted on April 1 And has now expired. The forecasts was for an event at: F: 06Apr2002 +/-2 days 4.9S 151.6E Mb 4.0-5.0 Rhunage PNG (65 km radius) The following events were recorded by NEIS: O: 07Apr2002 08:44:21 3.8S 151.0E MB=5.0 NEI NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G. O: 05Apr2002 03:15:11 5.3S 150.3E MB=4.7 NEI NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. O: 02Apr2002 12:24:18 5.2S 151.1E MB=4.3 NEI NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. The event best matching the forecast appears to be the one of April 2. This event is Approximately 65 -70 km from the forecast epicenter and within the magnitude window, But occurred two days earlier than the forecast window. The events on the 5th and 7th are both within the forecast time window and magnitude Window, but are slightly outside the distance range. A near hit. Don's complete forecast had been: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14452.html Rhunage,PNG Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on April 01, 2002 at 12:03:31: Magnitude: 4.6-5.0? From: 04/04/2002UTC - To: 04/08/2002UTC Location: Rhunagi, PNG Lat: 4.9S - Long: 151.6E - Range: 65Km Hi All. Looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 at 4.9S/151.6E, which is off the west coast of PNG. The nearest town that I could find is Rhugagi, which is about a 100Km NE of the expected epicenter. This forecast is the combination of the data I use as well as the data of others. The quake should occur on 04/06/2002. The widow will open on 04/04/2002 and will close on 04/08/2002. A geomagnetic storm 2 or 3 days before the forecasted date could cause this quake to occur early, or the magnitude be at least 1.0 higher, or both. The radius for this is 65Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town
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