Re: Earthquake forecasting goals
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 02, 2002 at 21:40:55:

Hi EQF. There is only one way the Government, or a body of scientist is going to listen to anything you, or I, or anyone else has to say about an major quake occurring in their area is that we have documented proof that our system, method, or what ever works. With out that proof there isn’t a snowballs chance in Hell that anyone is going to listen to you, or I.

Parkfield, California is one the most heavily monitored areas in the U.S. for the purpose of detecting a 6.0Ml or greater quake before it occurs. Only one A level alert after a 4.7Ml quake occurred (meaning a major quake could happen in the next 72hrs) was issued. Nothing happened. They did this without first proving that it could be done. They are not about to make that mistake again.

The people of Japan believed that their Government could predict a major quake before it would occur. The Kobe quake of 1995 proved that the Government couldn’t do it. Again the problem was in believing it could be done before obtaining the proof that it could be done.

With each forecast I made I knew that it could be a major quake, but I didn’t know that it would be a major quake. To date I haven’t forecasted a major quake. I have issued two advisements where nothing occurred.

In order for me to prove that I can forecast a major quake I have to make my forecast before the quake occurs and then have the quake occur when, where and at the magnitude I said it would. I will have to do that with a high degree of consistency before anyone is going to listen to me.

Another board or link set up for the purpose of putting all the earthquake predictions in one location isn’t the answer. No one is going to come to the board to look at a whole mess of predictions.

The only way that it’s going to be done is that you, I and anyone else have the documented proof. When you have that you take it to them. Take Care…Don in creepy town



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake forecasting goals - EQF  04:53:20 - 4/3/2002  (14542)  (0)