TAIWAN QUAKE/TSUNAMI (Ms 7.3) PRECEDED BY TEXAS PANHANDLE EVENT (ML 2.6)

P.S. Happy Easter to all.

SUMMARY

A strong earthquake and small tsunami hit southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
tonight causing much damage to that city.
Following is a news account of this event from the site:

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/03/31/taiwan.quake/index.html

TAIPEI, Taiwan (CNN) -- A powerful earthquake hit Taiwan Sunday afternoon,
killing at least four people and injuring more than 200 causing massive
damage to the capitalcity. Taiwan's central weather bureau measured the
quake at 6.8 in magnitude, centered near Hualien in the eastern part of
the island. Local media reports said one man died inhis car, when a crane
fell from a high-rise building. The death toll is expected to rise, as
many people have been missing in several collapsed buildings across the
capital A five-storey apartment building in central Taipei collapsed,
with five people trapped under the rubble, Reuters reported rescue workers
as saying. Weeping family members prayed rescuers dug into the rubble
to victims. At least 13 people were trapped and five were injured, the
government's disaster response center said.

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian was visiting Hualien when the
quake struck at 2:52 p.m. (0652 GMT) and went on national television
to assure the nation he was not harmed.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the tremor had preliminary magnitude
of 7.1 and described it as a major quake.

"The situation is under control. Please be calm," Premier Yu Shyi-kun
told reporters. The government mobilized soldiers and firefighters to
help rescue work, Yu was reported by Reuters as saying.

The force of the quake created "a giant shaking sensation that we felt
here in the capital," Jason Blatt told CNN.
"I can see damage everywhere," he said from his Taipei apartment.

Rockslide

Local media reported three buildings had collapsed or partially
collapsed, Taipei's subway has been shut down after a water pipe at
one station broke. Water and gas pipes were also ruptured around the
city because of the powerful quake, the reports said. Landslides cut
off a freeway in the eastern part of Taiwan, and threatened several
bridges. A rockslide injured an 8-year-old boy near Hualien, local
reports said.

In September 1999, more than 2,400 people lost their lives and more
than 11,000 were injured in a massive 7.6-magnitude earthquake.

Taiwan lies on a seismically active stretch of the Pacific basin
and earthquakes occur frequently.

Japan's Meteorological Agency issued tsunami warnings after the
Taiwan earthquake but later cancelled them.

"We cancelled the warnings because we judged that there was no concern
of damage from tsunamis," an agency official said, adding a tsunami
20 cm (eight inches) high was detected at southern Yonaguni Island
and a smaller tsunami occurred at Ishigaki Island before the warnings
were cancelled. "

Details of the precursory and forecasts for this event are contained in
the Far-field aftershock forecast which was published earlier this evening.
The epicenter had been identified within 30 km in the previous FFA forecast
From the Ryukyu Islands. Taiwan had been considered a main target for a
Sizable quake at this time.

GLOBAL

Besides, the Taiwan quake and aftershocks, seismicity in the rest of the
World was relatively subdued today.

Earthquakes of Mb>=4 were observed in the Molucca Sea (Mb 4.9);
Banda (Mb 5.0); Hokkaido (Ms 4.3); and southern Sumatera (Mb 4.8). An
Ml 4.3 was also recorded near Gujarat, Pakistan.

The only other event with Mb near 4 occurred southwest of Spain
near Morocco with Mb 3.9 or 4.0.

U.S./CANADA

Two events of interest occurred in the U.S./Canada region today.
The first of these was a Ml 2.5 about 10 km north of Amarillo, Texas
in the Texas Panhandle region. This event preceded the Taiwan
earthquake by about four hours, and as it lies directly on the
CM- shadow zone boundary, may have been a premonitory signal to
that event or FFA from the previous Ryukyu and Northern Chile
events which also affected this region. A felt earthquake had
been expected today in the region of the Central Plains states
between Texas and So. Dakota in previous summary forecast as
noted in the Ryukyu far-field forecast. There have been three
periods previously during which the region within 35 km of this
epicenter has been seismically active. The last was in August,
2000 when a series of events of Ml 3 to 3.9 occurred. Prior
to that only a Ml 2.7 on July 1, 1990 and a Ml 2.5 on Dec 11, 1986
had been recorded in this area near Amarillo, Texas, so today's
event must be considered a significant regional quake.

The other interesting quake of the day was a Ml 3.8 in the
Mesa Grande area of Southern California. This was also a rare
regional earthquake. Since 1977 (the past 25 years) only 8 events
within 35 km of this epicenter have had Ml>=3.8 and only two
were Ml>4 - a Ml 4.6 on Oct 10, 1984 and a Ml 4.4 on June 5, 1978.
The last Ml>3.8 occurred on July 24, 1998 with Ml 3.9.

Besides these events and the Mesa Grande aftershocks, there
was little seismicity to report in the U.S. or Canada. However,
since most networks are closed for the Easter holiday and weekend,
unreported events may be occurring which will be reported later.

NEW ZEALAND

There were no earthquake parameters reported from New Zealand
IGNS today. The IGNS on-line seismograph was mostly quiet.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was active today at moderate storm
levels. As reported in yesterday's summary, a storm began about
01:50 this morning (UT) after a strong sudden, change in the
geomagnetic field last night. Areas expected to see increased
activity included those within 20 degrees of 135E and 45W. Taiwan
was the first example of an area within this longitude range where
seismic hazard was increased today. The storm lasted for about
12 hours initiating a seismic watch for these regions.
One M-class and no X-class solar flares were observed today.
The parameters of the M-class event are listed below:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

5670 1245 1301 1314 M3.4

The Ml 3.8 near Mesa Grande, California occurred about 30
minutes after this flare and may have been affected by it.
For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020330events.txt

TIDAL EFFECTS

April 02 is the twentieth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central US MB>=1.0 63 2.7 0.03
India MB>=4.0 49 2.1 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 24 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=0.0 43 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.8 0.02
Rocky Mountains MB>=0.0 70 2.7 0.02
San Andreas MB>=0.0 23 3.8 0.01
San Andreas MB>=2.0 75 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=3.0 48 3.4 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -2.0 0.05
Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -17 -1.9 0.05
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 -29 -2.2 0.05

TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY

GLOBAL:

The following events of Mw>=7 have occurred on this date in
recorded history:

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION

3 31 19 0 0 1650 -13.500 -71.700 30 8.2 Central Peru
Limited damage occurred at Cuzco, Collao, Lima and Bolivia.

3 31 0 0 0 1818 19.100 -103.600 0 7.5 Michoacan, Mexico
Major damage occurred in Mexico City, with additional damage
at Guadalajara, Zapotlan el Grande and Colima. Many homeless and
displaced.

3 31 0 0 0 1893 38.300 38.300 0 7.0 Turkey
400 killed and severe damage at Malatya, Turkey.

3 31 7 10 0 1901 43.400 28.700 32 7.2 Bulgaria
Severe damage in Bulgaria at Balchik, Kavarna, Blatnitsa and Limang.

3 31 22 0 36 1907 -18.000 -177.000 400 7.2 Tonga Islands
3 31 3 41 6 1913 51.000 -179.000 60 7.3 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
3 31 0 29 49 1928 38.180 27.800 10 7.0 Aegean Sea
120 killed with severe damage at Torbaly and Tepekoy, Turkey.

3 31 2 51 43 1944 -7.000 130.500 60 7.0 West Irian, PNG
3 31 18 25 47 1954 12.500 58.000 60 7.4 Arabian Sea
3 31 18 17 0 1955 8.100 123.200 96 7.6 Central Philippines
3 31 2 27 9 1963 36.900 57.700 33 7.0 No. Iran
3 31 9 47 31 1965 38.600 22.400 78 7.1 No. Greece
6 killed with moderate damage in Greece. A series of earthquakes
battered Central Greece resulting in 6 deaths, 22 injuries and
major property damage at Patras and Agrinion. The mainshock was
felt from Yugoslavia to southern Italy.

3 31 7 15 54 1969 27.669 33.986 33 7.1 Red Sea
Two killed, 16 injured and heavy damage in the United Arab Republic.

3 31 13 12 52 1983 2.460 -76.690 22 7.0 Colombia
Between 250 and 350 people killed, many injured and extensive
damage in the Popayn area. Felt from Bogota to Pasto.

3 31 23 1 40 1995 38.190 135.497 403 7.0 No. Honshu, Japan
3 31 5 54 42 1999 5.827 -82.616 10 7.0 Panama/No. Colombia

U.S./CANADA

Following are events of Mb>=5 which have occurred in this region on
this date.

3 31 7 43 0 1898 38.200 -122.400 0 6.5 Central California
At Mare Island near San Francisco. This earthquak did damage on
Mare Island of about $350,000. Occurrence at night was probalby
the only thing that prevented loss of life. Felt as far as
Carson City, NV. Chimneys twisted and miscellaneous damage
was considerable at San Francisco. Thge shock lasted about 40
seconds.

3 31 3 41 6 1913 51.000 -179.000 60 7.3 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
3 31 5 47 0 1925 39.330 -120.330 0 5.0 Central California
3 31 10 8 25 1957 51.500 -178.000 0 6.1 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
3 31 9 1 30 1964 50.800 -130.200 15 6.1 British Colombia
3 31 11 3 35 1964 58.900 -149.900 17 5.0 Southern Alaska
3 31 2 12 15 1967 52.056 -169.702 7 5.8 Fox Islands, Aleutians
3 31 12 58 31 1970 51.890 -175.970 79 5.0 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians

3 31 20 33 31 1973 44.367 -110.358 0 5.1 Yellowstone/Wyoming
The press reported the shock was felt on the shore of Yellowstone
Lake. It was small and did no damage.

3 31 5 48 38 1975 49.270 -125.960 18 5.4 Vancouver Island area
3 31 5 48 38 1975 49.397 -125.599 33 5.3 Vancouver Island area
3 31 0 38 13 1978 61.787 -151.432 85 5.1 Central Alaska
3 31 21 2 18 1982 47.062 -66.634 3 5.0 E. of Maine
This was an aftershock of the event of Jan. 9 in New Brunswick,
Canada. Minor damage including cracks in foundations and walls
occurred in Aroostook County, Maine, at Caribou, Presque Isle.
Felt from the St. Lawrence River south ot Nova Scotia, and in
Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
Rhode Island and Vermont.

3 31 11 55 40 1986 37.467 -121.692 7 5.7 Central California

This earthquake injured three and did slight damage in San Jose
to Fremont. Damage included broken water mains, fallen ceiling
tiles, cracks in chimneys. Known as the Mt. Lewis earthquake.
Two minor foreshocks preceded this event.

3 31 22 22 5 1988 53.000 -168.200 0 5.1 Fox Islands, Aleutians