Posted by Lowell on March 27, 2002 at 20:31:01:
Thanks for those insights, Petra. A few words on the seasonal variation you alluded to in your post. While many of the largest events in California have occurred in April, this is not necessarily true in recent years for moderate earthquakes. Following is a listing of the number of non-aftershocks of Ml>=4.5 per month since 1980 in the region of California: MONTH # events Ml>=4.5 JAN 52 FEB 29 MAR 27 APR 33 MAY 39 JUN 49 JUL 57 AUG 40 SEP 46 OCT 49 NOV 37 DEC 45 As you can see, February is the least active month currently with less than half the activity of June and July. There is an apparent seasonal fluctuation with the lowest seismicity in late winter through Spring - February through May and the highest seismicity in the summer and early winter months. Perhaps random noisiness, but it would indicate that seismicity should be getting stronger over the next several months if this trend continues this year (as suggested in Petra's post).
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