Hi Lowell. You’re not by any chance trying to get me to give away my trade secrets are you?

When viewing the data I look at the number points per area. Here are the three locations for the Gulf of California area minus the points. As you can see there is some instability in the area, which could trigger a quake in any of those three areas as well as other areas. The quake that occurred was at 30.1N/114.1W. That would put it around 113Km from the closest forecast area.

At the time I view the data I take into accord past activity for a given area. This area I felt had just about played it self out. Of course we now know that isn’t the case.

31.1 -113.9 3 30 2002 2.0-3.2 Baja California
31.0 -115.0 3 25 2002 2.0-3.2 Baja California
31.2 -115.8 3 26 2002 2.0-3.2 Baja California

Here is what I had for off the coast of Northern California.

40.8 -127.4 4 1 2002 2.0-3.0 Off Coast No. California
41.0 -127.2 3 29 2002 2.0-3.2 Off Coast No. California
41.0 -129.0 3 25 2002 2.0-3.2 Off Coast No. California
41.9 -125.9 3 28 2002 2.3-3.3 Off Coast No. California
41.3 -125.3 3 30 2002 2.0-3.5 Off Coast No. California

As you can see there are a couple that would be close to the quake that occurred. I didn’t use them because going back through pass activity in the area I felt that the magnitudes were to low, and the one north of there had the right number of points, somewhat larger magnitude and has not shown that much activity in the recent past. In other words it was ripe for a quake.

That’s the hazards of this task. Ten thousands atta boys makes you the man of the year, but one ah poop wipes them out and you have to start all over again.

As for the one of the coast of Morocco. There could be surprise waiting there. Had to add a little drama, a little suspense. Will it occur, or will it be a bust? Only the earthquake knows and he isn’t talking. At least not yet.