Even in a cultural sense, your prediction was for a a moderate earthquake in a series of
faults far off-shore, Petra however expected an earthquake onshore. No one would
have given your forecast much concern (provided they believed it at all), but Petra's
might have resulted in worry, concern and possible loss of commerce to the region.
Since the earthquake actually occurred offshore and was not even noticed by the
population of the north coast it seems to me that yours is clearly the better.