Re: THIS ONE OUTTA BE CLOSE - tonight's M; 4.6 off the Coast of No. California/Forecasts
Posted by Lowell on March 27, 2002 at 08:53:58:

That makes sense too.

The higher probability obtained by the larger radius, however is offset by the
lower probability of a larger event. Since each increase in magnitude decreases
the likelihood of an event by a factor of about 10 or thereabouts - there are 10 times
as many 4's as 5's e.g. - and an increase in radius of 1.25 (5/4) increases the
area by only a factor of 1.56, the probability of the larger event at a greater distance
should still be smaller than the probability of a smaller event close by.


Follow Ups:
     ● NEIS is now listing this event at Mb 4.0 - Lowell  09:00:10 - 3/27/2002  (14219)  (0)