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Re: THIS ONE OUTTA BE CLOSE - tonight's M; 4.6 off the Coast of No. California/Forecasts
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Posted by Lowell on March 27, 2002 at 08:53:58:
That makes sense too. The higher probability obtained by the larger radius, however is offset by the lower probability of a larger event. Since each increase in magnitude decreases the likelihood of an event by a factor of about 10 or thereabouts - there are 10 times as many 4's as 5's e.g. - and an increase in radius of 1.25 (5/4) increases the area by only a factor of 1.56, the probability of the larger event at a greater distance should still be smaller than the probability of a smaller event close by.
Follow Ups:
● NEIS is now listing this event at Mb 4.0 - Lowell 09:00:10 - 3/27/2002 (14219) (0)
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