Lowell;

I am evaluating her prediction as it is given. I set certain outer limits for near misses. The mag limit is 0.3 less than predicted and any larger size on the upper end.

She predicts a 4 to 5.5 quake. I find all quakes 3.7 or greater and check each one for fit. The probability of a 2.0 does not enter into the picture.

Naturally this makes the probability lower than the odds on any old quake at all.

Given a certain size predicted, any larger quake that fits otherwise will be the one accepted. It's not a hit unless it happens.

Roger