Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass
Posted by EQF on March 25, 2002 at 09:27:26:

Quite a few warning signal data which I collected on March 18 and 20, 2002 and perhaps on a few other days clearly indicated to me that a strongly felt earthquake could be about to occur in that part of Afghanistan. And I am going to assume that that one was it. My time window for it was more towards March 21.

The philosophy which appears to be popular here is that forecast data are only worthwhile when they are posted before an earthquake occurs. I strongly disagree with that.

I am convinced that some of the main problems with earthquake forecasting are not with credibility but rather with a lack of interest and a lack of organization. This bulletin board provides us with a centralized resource for storing earthquake related information. Reports posted here can probably be accessed fairly easily by interested parties around the world. And it is my recommendation that when people who are running earthquake forecasting programs believe that they have been successful with determining that a significant earthquake might be about to occur somewhere then they should post a note here letting other people know that even if their note is posted after the earthquake has occurred. Interested parties then know that there is someone whom they can contact if they wish to obtain additional information.

There will always be earthquakes for people to predict in order to prove that their forecasting procedures work. A major problem at the moment is with simply finding people who believe that they can actually forecast earthquakes.

These are my personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Data for 2 Afghanistan earthquakes - EQF  09:06:51 - 3/26/2002  (14140)  (0)
     ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - Petra Challus  22:04:54 - 3/25/2002  (14122)  (1)
        ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - Don In Hollister  00:31:39 - 3/26/2002  (14126)  (1)
           ● Earthquake forecasting programs and credibility - EQF  09:06:38 - 3/26/2002  (14139)  (0)
     ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - R.Shanmugasundaram  16:43:47 - 3/25/2002  (14105)  (1)
        ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - Roger Hunter  18:19:52 - 3/25/2002  (14107)  (1)
           ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - R.Shanmugasundaram  18:52:43 - 3/25/2002  (14110)  (1)
              ● Re: Good Wishes Shan - Petra Challus  20:56:33 - 3/25/2002  (14116)  (1)
                 ● Re: Good Wishes Shan - Billion Watts  21:18:09 - 3/25/2002  (14118)  (1)
                    ● Re: Good Wishes Shan - Don In Hollister  21:58:31 - 3/25/2002  (14121)  (1)
                       ● Re: Good Wishes Shan - R,Shanmugasundaram  14:53:25 - 3/26/2002  (14172)  (0)