Hmmm...kind of looks familiar:

(Excerpt from linked response msg below):
"Remaining will be a range of earthquakes with varying probabilities depending on their parameters with regards to the original prediction.

Let's say there were 5 earthquakes in expanded predictions with the following probabilities of happening:

0.26 (26 %)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.08

Clearly the .08 earthquake will make the predictor look good whereas the 0.26 probability case will not.

A decision could be made at this point to accumulate (as for the hits cases) either the best or worst (or both) probability case as part of the predictors record of success/failure."

IMHO, I would go with the least likely one myself but a computer program could track both scores.

.02

• "evaluation procedure" posted below