Hi Roger,

I am so confused. I'm not understanding any of this. So let me ask a question that might make it easier for me to get it.

Cathryn and I have both gotten hits, but I don't know if she is in the lead, or I am. How can I tell? What would qualify either one of us to be #1, rather than #2?

On the probability, does a higher number mean you are less likely to hit it or does a lower number mean that? So for instance, if one predicts a quake in a place that doesn't have them very often, does that decrease your chance of getting a hit, but make it more valuable if you get it?

Remember to keep your answer simple or I won't know any more than I know now. LOL

Petra