Don's Challis, Idaho forecast earthquake was listed by the Montana Bureau of Mines today.

MBMG recorded the following earthquake:

O: 13MAR2002 21:54:31 44.9N 114.0W Ml 1.3 MBMG S of Salmon, ID

Don had forecast:

F: 13MAR2002 +/-2 days 44.9N 114.4W Ml 1.8-3.0 Challis, Idaho (within 35 km)

The event occurred within the time window (on the day expected) and was less than 35 km from
the expected epicenter, But was somewhat smaller than expected. But two out of three ain't bad.
An average of about5 events of Ml>=1.3 occur within 35 km of this epicenter in a year, so the
odds of a correct"guess" on this is about one in 15.

Don's original forecast:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/13536.html

Challis, Idaho Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 09, 2002 at 18:47:09:

Magnitude: 1.8-3.0Ml
From: 03/11/2002UTC - To: 01/15/2002UTC
Location: Challis, Idaho
Lat: 44.9N - Long: 114.4W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. Looks like Petra is about ready to shake, rattle and role. Looking for a 1.8 to 3.0 quake at 44.9N/114.4W. This is about 40Km NW of Challis, Idaho.

It should occur on 03/13/2002. The window opens on 03/11/2002 and will close on 03/15/2002. The radius for this is 35Km.

I keep looking for the one that will be at her front door, but the data isn't cooperating. Darn.

This lady is absolutely weird. She's the only person I know who enjoys quakes. I mean she really loves them. Of course that doesn't say much for me. I'm the one who takes her to the places where she might feel one.

I have no idea as to how she acts when she feels a quake. I suspect she most likely leaps and jumps all over the place creating her own quakes and shouting Waahooooooo. I can see the poor guys looking at the seismographs and saying to one another. This is real strange. We have the quake here, but all of the aftershocks are occurring 30 miles away from the epicenter.

Hang in there Kiddo. One day we will get that quake. Take Care…Cowboy