OK... I have two clarifications:

1) I meant to say that:

Accumulated odds = 1 / ( (1/4) to the 300 power)

e.g.

1 over (.25 * .25 * .25 *.....(n=300))

(I think average odds is probably a better way to show this).

2. Miss definition. Another definition for a miss is a "partial hit" which failed to meet the threshold probability (E.G. 33% used above) used to adjudicate a "partial hit from a clearly backround seismicity earthquakes (where the odds of it happening were say 50% (I used 33% before)). In other words, the quake was outside the prediction paramters (e.g. time window) but happens so routinely in the expanded prediction paramters odds that it is essentially a background seismicity (in the expanded prediction) earthquake.

The other definition of a miss (i.e. incorrect prediction) is, of couse, where no quake happened (which is always a miss) which I'm exluding for obvious reasons.

.02