Forecasts for the Missouri Earthquake today (Ml 3.0 or Mb 3.6)

Don's Forecast:

Well, I'll be!! This is one I thought Don would strike out on for sure. But
there it was this morning plain on the nose on your face - a light
earthquake in Missouri. East of Pocahantas, Arkansas. Don had forecast an
earthquake for this area at this time. Since this was the first earthquake
forecast Don had made for this region, I'd hardly consider this the
"shotgun" approach. By the way, there were some clear errors in the
forecast as written which were corrected in Don's textual reiteration
of the forecast including the use of month 1 instead of month 3 - and
a longer time window than was intended - Don must have had too much
Corona beer before writing that one - but read the text for the actual
forecast, as it apparently was intended to be made.

CERI is locating the following event today:

Source:
http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

O: 12MAR2002 02:30:49 37.1N 90.0W Ml 3.0 NW of Advance, MO
Don's forecast Event had been:
F: 11MAR2002 +/-2days 36.5N 91.0W Ml 2-3 Pocahantas, Arkanasa (within 35 km)

Todays event falls 2 hours of f the expected day and within the specified magnitude range. It is Slightly outside the radius expected for the event
but within the geographical region defined.
This is the largest event in Missouri in the listing given by CERI - going
back about half A year, so it is a significant regional event. Not bad
guesswork on Don's part to get close with a few hours.

By the way, NEIS is giving the following parameters for this event:

02/03/12 08:30:47 37.15N 90.02W 5.0 3.6Mb A EASTERN MISSOURI

Source:

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html

or

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

At Mb 3.6 this could easily have been felt in Pocahantas, Arkansas.

Far-Field Forecast:

This may also have been a Far-Field aftershock from Hindu Kush as it lies
at a distance Of 104 degrees from that event at the p- and s-wave
core-mantle shadow zone boundary, An area where seismic energy is
concentrated after strong earthquakes. The FFA forecast From Hindu Kush
had suggested the possibility:

"Areas of U.S. and Canada where triggering may occur (Ml>=3.5)

Southern states (... Missouri)"

This is the second event in the U.S. of Ml>3.5 (NEIS) at this
distance from Hindu Kush - the other being the Mammoth Lakes
earthquake yesterday (Ml 3.7). A Ml 2.8 also occurred at 104 degrees
from Hindu Kush in Utah two days ago.

Yesterday's earthquake summary had included a discussion on
other events lying at this core-mantle boundary shadow zone including
the Ml 5.0 in the Virgin Islands yesterday, the largest there
in some time as well.

The complete listing of possibilities for this distance was given
in the FFA forecast as:

"103-107 degrees***: Central California from Pinnacles to Mammoth
Lakes, north to San Francisco, south to L.A. Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands, Central Vanuatu Islands."

Moderate or unusual earthquakes have now occurred in each area
mentioned.

Don's Original forecast had been:

Pocahontas, Arkansas Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 06, 2002 at 18:54:14:

Magnitude: 2.0-3.0Ml
From: 01/09/2002UTC - To: 01/15/2002UTC
Location: Pocahontas, Arkansas
Lat: 36.5N - Long: 91.0W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. Sometimes I don't know what to think about what the data I use
tells me. It tells me to look for a 2.0 to 3.0 quake at 36.5N/91.0W.

This is about 40Km north of Pocahontas, Arkansas. This makes it about
100Km west of New Madrid, Missouri. Should occur on 03/11/2002. The window
will open on 03/09/2002 and will close on 03/13/2002. The radius on this
will be 35Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town