Posted by Lowell on March 09, 2002 at 00:22:04:
Dons' forecast for Winslow, Maine appeared to be a shot in the dark at the time it was made about Two weeks ago. The forecast for New England was interesting because it was for an area where Earthquake of Ml>=2 are relatively rare at least in recent years., and it was at least partially correct. The following events of Ml>=2 have occurred in New England in the past two weeks: O: 25FEB2002 18:06:25 44.5N 68.9W MN=2.6 SSW OF BUCKSPORT, ME This was one of the largest events in this area of Maine in more than a year. O: 06MAR2002 11:09:45 41.7N 71.3W MN=2.2 Southern New England This was the largest event in southern New England in more than a year surpassed regionally Only by the Ml 2.6 in Manhattan on Oct. 26, 2001. Don's forecast had been for F: 07MAR2002 +/-2 days 44.4N 69.4W Md 2.0-3.0 Winslow Maine The forecast matches the parameters of the event on Feb. 25 within 35 km and within the magnitude Limits, and is set within the time window for the event on March 6 in the general region of the forecast. For areas such as this, a forecast might be made on Feb 20 for the next two weeks saying: " Seismic activity is expected to increase in the region of New England over the next two weeks with the highest probability of an event of Ml>=2 in the Winslow, Maine vicinity. Earthquakes in New England are area and generally non-destructive, but if shaking lasts for more than 5 seconds, be prepared to take precautions." Don's Winslow Maine forecast: Winslow, Maine Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on February 28, 2002 at 12:08:23: Magnitude: 2.0-3.0Md From: 03/07/2002UTC - To: 03.09.2002UTC Location: Winslow, Maine Lat: 44.4N - Long: 69.4W - Range: 35Km Hi All. I thought I might take a little trip with this one. Looking for a 2.0 to 3.0 quake at 44.4N/69.4W. This is about 25Km SE of Winslow, Maine. Should occur on 03/07/2002. The window will open on 03/05/2002 and will close on 03/09/2002. The radius on this will be 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town
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