FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS FROM HINDU KUSH DOMINATE DAY'S ACTIVITY

SUMMARY

Most of the seismic activity in the world today was forecast in the
far-field forecast from Hindu Kush as likely having a far-field effect
from the Hindu Kush (Mw 7.2) yesterday. The largest swarm and event
of the day occurred in the Bonin Islands, Japan south east of Honshu. These
events (Mb 5.6, 5.2 and 5.1) lie 60.7 degrees from the Hindu Kush
mainshock. A second event of Mb 4.6 occurred north of these earlier
in the day with a distance of 59 degrees from Hindu Kush. The far-field
forecast had noted this as a likely region for FFA as follows:

" 59-61 degrees: ..., off E. Coast of Japan,"

and in a specific note referring to this area at the end of the
far-field forecast:

" Earthquakes of M>=7 in Hindu Kush seldom cause a major increase
in global seismic activity. The most likely location for a large
earthquake in the next 10 days appears to be off the East Coast
of Honshu northward to Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. There are
few occasions when a large event in Hindu Kush is not followed
by a strong earthquake somewhere between Honshu and the Komandorsky
Islands. Often there is a series of such events along this arc."

An event was also located by GSC in the Central Vanuatu Islands
of Mb 4.4. The far-field forecast had identified this epicenter at
106 degrees from Hindu Kush as a possibility:

103-107 degrees***: .... Central Vanuatu Islands."

An earthquake in Central Pakistan (Mb 4.0, GSR) located about 700
km directly south of the Hindu Kush epicenter was apparently a
regional aftershock.

Two events of Mb 4.9 also occurred in Taiwan today. These earthquakes
lie at 45.4 and 45.2 degrees from Hindu Kush and are the largest
earthquakes in Taiwan since Feb. 12 when a Ms 6.2 and two Ms 5.2
aftershocks were recorded. Taiwan had also been an area where
strong FFA were expected in the forecast:

"43-45 degrees: ... Taiwan"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:
(Number in paranthesis indicated number of times and event of M>=6
has followed a Hindu Kush mainshock within 2-3 weeks).

...Taiwan (4)"

EMSC also is locating a series of earthquakes in Northern Italy,
Austria and north to Germany in the Ml 2.5 range which have occurred
today, also at 43-46 degrees from the Hindu Kush epicenter.

GLOBAL

Other earthquakes of Mb>=5 occurred in New Britain (Mb 5.1) and
in the Tonga Islands (Mb 5.2). Neither of these were at distances
or in regions where far-field triggering was expected.
Excluding aftershocks, this has been the most active day at the
global M>=5 level since Feb. 24 with 4 such non-aftershock events
today and 5 on Feb. 24.

U.S./CANADA

California/Nevada

The largest earthquake in the U.S. or Canada today continued
to occur in the aftershock sequence south of Calexico. The Ml 3.4
this morning was the largest aftershock since a Ml 4.0 on Feb. 25.
There were 11 earthquakes of Ml>=2 in the southern California region
today, 10 in the aftershock swarm and the other in the Boron, CA
region (Ml 2.1). In northern California, only one event of Ml>=2
has occurred since the Bishop Ml 2.7 last night - a Ml 2.0 near
Hollister this evening. With the exception of the aftershock swarm
there has not yet been an increased level of activity in this region.

Pacific Northwest

In the northwest a Ml 2.1 occurred under Mt. Rainier this morning.
This was the largest event in the Mount Rainier region since a Ml 3.2
occurred on Feb. 19. No new events were located off the coast of
Oregon today after several events in the Ml>4 range over the weekend
in that area.

Rocky Mountains

In the Rocky Mountain area, MBMG reported three events - a Ml 2.1
near Lima, west of Yellowstone, a Ml 2.7 near Jackson Lake, Wyoming
and a Ml 1.9 in southern Yellowstone N.P.

Eastern U.S./Canada

The past three days have seen a high level of activity in southeastern
Canada. Some of the strongest events in the U.S/Canada in the past
several days have occurred in this area. These include an earthquake
of Ml 2.6 near Val-D'or, Quebec; Ml 3.0 and 2.8 near Maniwaki in
southern Quebec, a Ml 3.8 in Nunavit, Hudson Bay, a Ml 2.3 near
Braeside, Ont, and a series of small events from Newfoundland (Ml 3.1)
to areas of Quebec east of Maine (Ml 1.3, 1.2, 1.4).

Alaska/Hawaii

Three events of Ml>3 have been listed in Hawaii in the past two
days, however upon re-evaluation these usually are reduced considerably
in size in later revisions. Alaska did not report any events of Ml>3
today.

NEW ZEALAND

An earthquake of Ml 4.7 was recorded on the northeastern Coast
of North Island near White Volcano today. It was expected the event
was felt in the general neighborhood NE of Opotiki, New Zealand.
The IGNS on-line seismometer remained noisy today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

After a brief and moderate geomagnetic storm between 21:00 and 24:00
UT last night, the geomagnetic field returned to quiet conditions
today. No M- or X- class flares were observed on the sun.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020304events.txt

TIDAL EFFECTS

March 5, 2002 is twenty days after the beginning the lunar month
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central US MB>=1.0 63 2.7 0.03
India MB>=4.0 49 2.1 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 24 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=0.0 43 2.8 0.02
Central California MB>=2.0 9 2.3 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 23 2.8 0.02
Rocky Mountains MB>=0.0 70 2.7 0.02
San Andreas MB>=0.0 23 3.8 0.01
San Andreas MB>=2.0 75 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=3.0 48 3.4 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

NW Europe MB>=4.0 -9 -2.0 0.05
Mammoth lakes MB>=3.0 -17 -1.9 0.05
So Indonesia MB>=4.0 -29 -2.2 0.05

TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY

March 6 has seen no great (Mw>=8) earthquakes recorded in the world.
The most damaging event occurred in 1987 near the coast of Northern
Peru. This earthquake (Mw 7.3) killed one person and caused damage
in the Antofagasta area of Chile. It was felt from Arequipa, Peru
to La Paz, Bolivia. A local tsunami was generated with maximum runup
of 28 cm at Caldera, Chile.
The Chile earthquake was followed less than a day later by a very
deadly earthquake in the Colombia-Ecuador border region (March 6, 1987)
which left more than 5000 dead and missing. This was one of the most
destructive events in Ecuador in modern times. Both the Chile
and Ecuador events occurred on March 5, local time and triggering
may well have been a factor in the second event.
The other damaging earthquake to occur on March 5 hit New Zealand. The
following account of this event is from:

"Seismology in New Zealand (including Earthquake Summaries for the
year 1934) Dominion Observatory, Wellington, N.Z. Bulletin No S27 (p4).

" The most important seismic event in the year 1934 was the severe
earthquake which occurred on 5 March at 23 h. 16 m., NZMT. This earthquake
was felt as far as Auckland in the north and Dunedin in the south.
Considerable damage resulted and the face of the country was slightly
disturbed in the districts around Pahiatua and to the eastward. Coastal
districs from Porangahau to Castlepoint also suffered damage, and slips
occurred on the coastal cliffs. Fall of chimneys occurred over a wide
area, commencing in the Wairarapa and extending in to Southern Hawke's
Bay, Manawatu, and in a north-westerly directiopn as far as Wanganui.
It appears that a maximum intensity of 9 on the Rossi-Forel scale
was probably reached at points in the disturbed area. The revised
position of the epicenter places the origin about thirty miles
off the east coast of North Island."

One person is known to have been killed in this quake of Mw 7.5.

SEISMIC HAZARD IN ROMANIA

One of the largest and most destructive earthquakes in Romania occurred
on March 4, 1977. More than 1500 were killed and 10,500 injured. There
was major damage in the Bucharest area, deaths reported in Bulgaria and
injuries as far away as Yugoslavia. The event was felt from Rome to
Moscow and Turkey to Finland.
Several strong events have occurred since the 1977 earthquake in the
same general area. A Ms 6.9 on August 30, 1986 did considerable damage
in Focsani-Biriad area including the collapse of a church. It was
felt at MMI VII in Bucharest. Two people were killed, 500 injured and
about 55,000 homes destroyed. This event was not as widely felt as
the 1977 but was felt in southern Italy, Turkey, Moscow, Poland and
Yugoslavia.
Similar events occurred on Nov. 10, 1940 killing 1000 and doing
up to $10 million damage and on May 30, 1990. That event killed 14 and
inflicted extensive damage in Bucharest, Braila and Brasov.
Other destructive earthquakes in the same region hit in 1516, 1802,
1829 and 1839, the worst of which was on Nov. 26, 1829 when Bucharest
suffered severely.
These earthquake generally lie at intermediate depths - around 90-200 km
which explains the wide-felt area and could be related to a piece
of detached or detaching slab. The tectonics appear similar to those
of the Hindu Kush region. Two other areas of the world have similar
pockets of intermediate depth seismicity - the Bucaramanga region
of NE Colombia; and an area east of the Santa Cruz Islands in the south
Pacific Ocean.

U.S./CANADA

Although earthquakes of Mb 5.2, 5.1, 5.4 and 5.2 have occurred on
this day in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, none have been damaging
to local residents.
The only damaging event in the U.S. occurred on March 5, 1864 east
of San Francisco in Alameda County, CA (Ml 5.9). Many walls were
cracked and plaster fell. A few plate-glass windows shattered in
San Francisco where the earthquake apparently was strongest. A few
buildings in San Jose also had cracks in plaster. It was felt
from Santa Rosa to Sacramento and south to San Juan Mission.