Two earthquakes occurred in the Parkfield/New Idria area today. These appear to match the parameters
Of two of Don in Hollister's forecasts.

The forecast and subsequent events were:

For New Idria:

Forecast:
02 MAR +/-2days 36.4N 120.7W +/-35 km Ml 2.0-3.2 New Idria, CA
Event (SCSN/NCSN):
02 MAR 04:22 UT 36.2N 120.8W Ml 1.5 New Idria, CA

This event occurred within Don's time window; within 25 km of the expected epicenter but
Was slightly smaller than expected.

For Parkfield:

Forecast:
04 MAR +/-2days 35.9N 120.5W +/-35 km Ml 3.0-4.0 Parkfield, CA
Event (SCSN/NCSN):
01 MAR 21:23 UT 36.0N 120.5W Ml 1.8 Parkfield, CA

This event was out of the time window by 2.5 hours, within 10 km of the forecast epicenter,
But again smaller than expected.

With both events very near the forecast epicenters and time windows, but smaller than expected,
This seems to confirm Don's statement that he can tell the location and approximate time, but
Magnitude is more difficult to get right. Anyone who has ideas to help Don on this , I am certain
They would be welcomed.

Don's Original forecasts follow:

Forecast:

PARKFIELD:

New Idria, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on February 22, 2002 at 02:14:40:

Magnitude: 2.0-3.2Ml
From: 02/28/2002UTC - To: 03/02/2002UTC
Location: New Idria, California
Lat: 36.4N - Long: 120.7W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. Now that Lowell is back I will put him to work. I know he's just going to love hearing this.

I'm looking for a 2.0 to 3.2 quake at 36.4N/120.7W. This is about 5Km SW of New Idria. Should occur on 03/02/2002. The window opens on 02/28/2002 and will close on 03/04/2002. The radius on this is 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town

PARKFIELD:

03/02/2002. TheParkfield, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on February 25, 2002 at 21:22:57:

Magnitude: 3.0-4.0Ml
From: 03/02/2002UTC - To: 03/06/2002UTC
Location: Parkfield, California
Lat: 35.9N - Long: 120.5W - Range: 35KM

Hi All. It seems I may have gone to Parkfield a little early. Looking for a 3.0 to 4.0 quake at 35.9N/120.5W. This is about
6Km west of Parkfield. Should occur on 03/04/2002. The window will open on 03/02/2002 and will close on 03/06/2002.
The radius on this will be 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town

window opens on 02/28/2002 and will close on 03/04/2002. The radius on this is 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• California earthquakes