Re: Formal Ruling & Commentary Requested
Posted by 2cents on February 14, 2002 at 20:42:17:

Hi All:

I think it is clear that EQF uses the ear tone in a different interpretation than does Petra. A problem arises when they both inidicate for the same epicenter. Is party A using party B's method?

Well...how frequently does this happen? Since no predictions are being presented no one can say.
Same thing goes for accuracy.

Given all parties deserve credit for trying (and acknowledging the others input) there no way to know how accurate they are over time. Also, what if the methods are not reliable enough or accurate enough over time? Without predictions we will not know for sure.

This being the case, any messages sent about impending quakes will likely be ignored by the recipients (gov't etc.)

This being the case, I think it is OK for EQF to try and use Petra's Ear Tone's to derive a prediction using his own method. I think it is OK for him to send out warnings too but some inkling of reliability should be developed with some prediction testing first. I think a problem arises for Petra when the prediction for a quake matches ... then the suspicions arise that the tone And prediction has possibly been appropriated without some reference to the tones source Petra.

So far, I can't say that I'm seeing predictions from either party (not to de-applaud the efforts or anything)...so it is not clear how anybody is stepping on anybody's toes here. One way to go is post a prediction first ...then will see over time if some party is copying the other party.

Another perspective is that if a big quake is on the way, and a few people on this board could have just maybe come up with a good prediction by sharing info...then it would be sad to miss the opportunity due to egos. It is a great thing when people set egos aside to save somebody's hide...without guarantee of due credit. It is a challenge to anybody alive (and who has an ego).

So in summary, Petra (& Don) go ahead and post your tones with predictions first. We will be able to tell if any party is repeating the prediction over time and secondly by the time stamp. Also, you may wish to post on soem usenet group as well to also establish a time stamp (in case the archives on this site become inaccessible fro whatever reason).

I hope my comments did not blend into your steam of consciousness background noise as you dazedly clicked to the next message before reading all of my blah blah blah...:)

Just my .02 worth