Hi Cathryn,

I didn't have time to answer your last post, but just reading between the lines my best guess is that there is "no known location" for the big one. Here's an excerpt from his web page on this subject, covered in one of the chapters of his book:

"16. Where in California Will The Big One Strike?

Why and how do scientists study the faults where past big earthquake have occurred?
What kind of research is going on presently?
What does the geographical distribution of the larger earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system indicate?
What do past earthquake clustering patterns and movements near and away from the San Andreas fault suggest?
What does the absence of small earthquakes from the San Andreas segments of the 1857 and 1906 events indicate?
Where are the present seismic gaps on the San Andreas fault system?
Where are seismic gaps in the Bay Area where additional earthquakes will occur?
What has been learned from measurements of ground movements?
What do past earthquake ground movements reveal?
What do measurements of aseismic creep imply?
What does the fault break of the 1857 earthquake suggest?
Where are the present locked segments of the San Andreas Fault?
What does the seismic quietness of the San Andreas segments of the Carrizo Plain and the Mojave signify?
What does the higher level of seismicity in the Big Bend area of the San Andreas reflect?
What is happening presently at the southern end of the 1857 earthquake rupture of the San Andreas fault?
What do the differences in earthquake depths convey?
What was learned from the studies of the Palmdale uplift?
Where are the sites of future large earthquakes in Northern California?
Was the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake the one expected, or is there another one coming?
Where are the sites of future large earthquakes in Southern California?
Where in California will the Big One most likely strike?"

Anyone seriously interested in this topic no doubt has looked at every single one of these area's listed and I doubt anyone, including George really knows where its going to happen.

But I can't fault him for not saying something. He may not have it down to a really "short term prediction" yet and so the need to know may not be so urgent. We have to remember, he needs to sell his book and a captivating title is surely a good way to start.

Between your ears and mine Cathryn, chances are one of us or both of us are going to know when the big one is coming and approximately where that might be. After all, though George has a lot going for him, I am not aware of him hearing ear tones. I'd love to be able to send him a tape of what deep, dark and ugly sounds like. He might gleam a bit out of it or if not, I'd say the sound would perhaps lend that bit of ominous quality it has and make him want to hurry up and pick a location, if he hasn't done so already.

Although I've been pretty set on it being south of Parkfield and north of Ft. Tejon, this morning I was looking at San Ardo and had a brief thought that maybe, just maybe, that's where deep, dark and ugly shall rear its ugly earthquake. I'd like to hear it again so I could count the seconds and then I'd be far more certain.

As for being skeptical, let us remember these words from Carl Sagan.

We wish to find the truth, no matter where it lies:
But to find the truth
We need imagination and skepticism both.
We will not be afraid to speculate,
But we will be careful
To distinguish speculation from fact."

Its a good thing....Petra