Hi Chris,

This is one of my most favorite topics, so I'm glad you brought it up.

First and foremost, the government is of the opinion that we citizens could not handle receiving a true earthquake warning. You know the kind that says, "it looks like an 8.0 may arrive within 3 days." They say they have done all kinds of psychological studies and they prove we aren't able to handle that kind of a warning.

Therefore, its not likely we are ever going to get a direct warning. We may get one that is considerably more vague, but not a direct warning. But it doesn't bar the government from placing emergency services on alert. That can be done without public knowledge.

The primary focus though must remain on individual earthquake preparedness in concert with preparedness on behalf of businesses where employees are present and consumers. If at least 75% of the households in CA were earthquake prepared, they would not only know what to do at home, but away from home as well.

Now let us imagine that a direct warning is issued and let us also imagine that the public remains level headed in this process. We will place this hypothetical possible epicenter on the penilsula section of the San Andreas Fault near San Francisco.

Over a million people commute to work using three of the area's bridges. An epicenter at that location means that all of the bridges are at risk. It also means that the Bay Area Rapid Transit which goes under the bay is also at risk. We have to ask some important questions about the scenario about to be played out as follows:

1. Will the government close the bridges?
2. Will they shut down BART?
3. Will those commuters stop going to work for 3 days?
4. Will the employers of those commuters understand and tell them its ok, we'll manage without you until the warning period is over?
5. Will people panic and try to leave the area?
6. Will they make a run on the banks and the area stores?

This list is just a small one, but there's a lot of material in just considering one single part of it. And what happens if the possible earthquake does not occur? Will the next warning be taken seriously?

This is why I am of a mind today to feel that something serious needs to be done about promoting earthquake awareness and preparedness on a routine and regular basis. It cannot happen just on the anniversaries of earthquakes, nor during Earthquake Awareness Week every April.

There must be a middle ground also in the warning process. We have to be honest when we know that most of the people who live in this state already know a big quake is coming at some time or another. But the fact is that it doesn't take the big one to have loss of life and lots of property damage. For that you only need a 5.0.

Communication is the key to at least making some headway on preparedness. In that process the public can be told that it doesn't take an 8 magnitude earthquake to cause property damage or injuries. Teach them what they need to know, encourage them repeatedly to get ready and just maybe some of them will act.

But I can tell you now that unless and until this happens, the state of complacency by both the public and the government for not educating the public means that zero progress is going to be made and that is a harbinger of major stress of essential services when needed.

Every time there's an earthquake here no less than 100 people call the police departments to talk about it. Just imagine, 100 phone calls from people wanting to discuss it, when there are 1000's who may need real help. This is a serious problem and education is the only answer.

Petra