Don's Mammoth Lakes Earthquake forecast - completely successful
Posted by lowell on December 30, 2001 at 12:21:00:

Also wanted to make note of Don's Mammoth Lakes forecast for an
event of Ml 2.5-4.0 beginning on the 28th of December. Two events
are listed for the 28th December on the NCSN web site at:
http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/data/quake/plan.xerox_map.html

They are:
28DEC2001 00:33:24 37.5N 118.8W 2.8Md SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
and
28DEC2001 05:08:06 37.5N 118.8W 2.6Md SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA

Don's forecast had been:

28-01DEC 40 km of 37.7N 118.9W Ml 2.5-3.5 Mammoth Lakes, CA

These two events fall within the magnitude, time and distance
range of the forecast. The forecast is completely successful.
Unfortunately I cannot make statistical evaluations from my current location.

Don's forecast had been (made on Dec 20):

Mammoth Lakes, California Area Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on December 20, 2001 at 16:04:50:

Magnitude: 2.5 to3.5Ml
From: 12/28/2001UTC - To: 01/01/2002UTC
Location: Mammoth Lakes, California
Lat: 37.7N - Long: 118.9W - Range: 40KM

Hi All. Recently I started making my forecast about 8 to 10 days
before the forecasted date. I have found that accuracy
isn’t quite as good as making a forecast 5 days before the forecasted
date. I will continue to make the near 10-day
forecasts, but will make changes as warranted.

Looking for a 2.5 to 3.5 quake at 37.7N/118.9W. This is about 7Km NE
of Mammoth Lakes. Should occur on 12/30/2001.
Window will open on 12/28/2001 and will close on 01/01/2002. Radius
on this is 40Km.

In the event of a geomagnetic storm 2 or 3 days before the forecasted
date there could be an increase of 0.5
magnitude. Take Care…Don in creepy town