Posted by lowell on December 30, 2001 at 12:21:00:
Also wanted to make note of Don's Mammoth Lakes forecast for an event of Ml 2.5-4.0 beginning on the 28th of December. Two events are listed for the 28th December on the NCSN web site at: http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/data/quake/plan.xerox_map.html They are: 28DEC2001 00:33:24 37.5N 118.8W 2.8Md SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA and 28DEC2001 05:08:06 37.5N 118.8W 2.6Md SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA Don's forecast had been: 28-01DEC 40 km of 37.7N 118.9W Ml 2.5-3.5 Mammoth Lakes, CA These two events fall within the magnitude, time and distance range of the forecast. The forecast is completely successful. Unfortunately I cannot make statistical evaluations from my current location. Don's forecast had been (made on Dec 20): Mammoth Lakes, California Area Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on December 20, 2001 at 16:04:50: Magnitude: 2.5 to3.5Ml From: 12/28/2001UTC - To: 01/01/2002UTC Location: Mammoth Lakes, California Lat: 37.7N - Long: 118.9W - Range: 40KM Hi All. Recently I started making my forecast about 8 to 10 days before the forecasted date. I have found that accuracy isn’t quite as good as making a forecast 5 days before the forecasted date. I will continue to make the near 10-day forecasts, but will make changes as warranted. Looking for a 2.5 to 3.5 quake at 37.7N/118.9W. This is about 7Km NE of Mammoth Lakes. Should occur on 12/30/2001. Window will open on 12/28/2001 and will close on 01/01/2002. Radius on this is 40Km. In the event of a geomagnetic storm 2 or 3 days before the forecasted date there could be an increase of 0.5 magnitude. Take Care…Don in creepy town
|