HOW TO DEVELOP AN EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM
December 8, 2001

It is my recommendation that people interested in the science of earthquake forecasting read the following report which proposes how relatively simple earthquake forecasting programs can be developed.

http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/126.html

Comments regarding how to improve that report and things which need to be clarified in it would be appreciated. After people have had a chance to comment on the report I am planning to circulate copies of it or notes regarding where to find it to different government agencies, research groups, and individuals around the world. I believe that the forecasting program described in the report could be used until more accurate procedures which are reportedly being developed by other researchers become widely available.

Any doubts which I might have had in the past regarding whether or not that particular approach to forecasting earthquakes works disappeared on December 4, 2001. Two warning type signals in my own records were perfect matches for the following earthquakes which occurred in the Peru and Chile areas on August 9, 2001:

09Aug2001 03:33:47.5 18.7S 73.5W140 MS=4.7
OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE

09Aug2001 02:06:59.1 14.4S 72.6W 33 M =5.5
CENTRAL PERU

(data from NEIS and/or RedPuma data tables)

And, my data for the "ear tone" time which two people reported in the following posts to this bulletin board on December 3, 2001 were a perfect match for a warning signal from my own records dated August 8, 2001, just before those two earthquakes:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11504.html
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11508.html

After examining those data I concluded that a destructive earthquake could be about to occur near where one of those two earthquakes had occurred. The following one did occur on December 4. And it reportedly claimed at least two lives.

2001/12/04 05:57:18 15.30S 72.59W 33.0 5.5
SOUTHERN PERU

Those events indicate to me that we could at times use the forecasting procedure discussed in that report to evaluate certain types of precursors such as ear tones and in the process generate accurate earthquake forecasts.

These are my own opinions.