Even lying flat on your back with the flu, you can still outdo the
rest of us with your forecasts, Don. A think a special congratulations
is due on the Morgan Hill forecast/event, even though it occurred
about half a day earlier than expected. So get well, go to AGU,
and spread the news that earthquake prediction may not be so far off after
all. Maybe someday even the DIB's of the world will take notice.

NCSN listed the following earthquake this morning:

O: 06DEC2001 10:41:49 37.3N 121.6W Ml=3.2 NCSN N of Morgan Hill, CA
(UT time)

On Dec 3, Don had forecast the following event:

P: 07-11DEC 40 km 37.5N 121.6W 2.8-4.0 Livermore, CA

The event falls within 25 km of Don's forecast epicenter and is in
the middle of the forecast magnitude range. It is, however slightly
more than half a day earlier than expected.

Probability:

Since December 1998, there have been 17 six-day periods during
which an event matching Don's forecast parameters has occurred.
In the same time there have been 182 such 6-day time frames. The
probability of random success is thus 17/182 = 0.09 or odds of
about 1 in 11 for success with this forecast in a six-day time
window. This is the largest earthquake in this area since a Ml 4.0
on Feb. 25, 2001, three days before the Nisqually, WA Ms 6.8 earthquake.

Once again, congratulations into your insight into future seismicity
Don. Keep up the good work. Sooner or later someone "important" cannot help but notice.

Don's original forecast can be found at the link below.
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11518.html

• Don's Livermore forecast