MODERATELY HIGH GLOBAL SEISMICITY CONTINUES WITH EVENTS IN PERU AND PHILIPPINES

SUMMARY

Moderately high levels of seismicity continued today with moderately
large earthquakes in Peru (Ms 5.7) and Northern Luzon, Philippines (Mb 5.4).
The earthquake in Peru was probably a Far-field aftershock from Honshu
as it occurred at 142 degrees from that event, a distance where FFA
are expected from reflection and refraction of seismic energy off
the inner-outer core transition boundary to the surface.
The Peru earthquake was the second moderate event in that region
since the Honshu earthquake. The first was a Mb 5.3 on the Chile-Bolivia
border region yesterday - that event occurred at 146 degrees from the
Honshu mainshock and was also probably an FFA.
The earthquake in Northern Luzon appears to have been two events
closely related in time - the first of Mb 5.5 and the second of Mb 5.7
(GSSC determinations).

GLOBAL

Other earthquakes of Mb>=5 occurred today in Northern Sumatera (Mb 5.0)
and in the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge area (Mb 5.0). Other Mid-ocean events have
occurred in the Balleny Islands south of New Zealand and in the South
Sandwich Islands (Mb 4.5) in the past several days.
Smaller earthquakes of Mb>4 were listed today in northern Chile (Mb 4.7);
the Mariana Islands (Mb 4.5); eastern Turkey, where a swarm including
two of Ml>4 occurred this morning near Van, Turkey. The Turkey events
are occurring at 72 degrees from the Honshu mainshock and are probably
FFA as well.

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake in the U.S./Canada region today was recorded
in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado (Ml 3.0). No events of Ml>=3
were recorded elsewhere in the U.S./Canada region since last report.
In the California/Nevada area, there were six earthquakes of Ml>=2
recorded since last report. These occurred near Scotty's Castle, CA
(Ml 2.1); the Geysers (Ml 2.2, 2.2); Willow Creek in No. California
(Ml 2.3) and Coso Junction (Ml 2.1) and Calipatria in southeastern
California (Ml 2.2).
The strong swarm which began shortly after the Honshu mainshock and is
occurring in the Yellowstone Park region of Wyoming intensified
today with a Ml 2.7 earthquake the largest of many. An Ml 2.3 event
was also recorded by USBR in the Idaho region southwest of Yellowstone
this morning.
The only event listed of Ml>=2 in the Pacific northwest or western
Canada today occurred near Mount Vernon, WA (Ml 2.1). No earthquakes
of Ml>=3 were recorded in Alaska or Hawaii in the past 24 hours.

NEW ZEALAND

The IGNS on-line seismogram shows three red-line events in the past
24 hours. IGSN reported parameters for one of these events - a Ml 4.1
north of Castlepoint, east of North Island.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today. There were two M-class
solar flares observed with the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

9160 + 0037 0045 0053 M1.0
9230 + 0537 0546 0558 M1.3

A small event in the Mammoth Lakes region occurred near the peak
output of flare 9230:

O: 4DEC2001 5:51:50 37.5N 118.8W ML=1.7 NCSN WSW of Toms Place, CA

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011204events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Tropical Depression Olga is off the coast of Florida today and reversed
course once again to move to the east into the Atlantic ocean. Forecasters
do not expect this to last, however, and the latest forecast shows
Olga reversing direction one more time back to the west and entering
the Florida Strait sometime on Thursday or Friday. So, we may finally
see landfall and perhaps associated seismicity in North America from
this highly unpredictable storm system.

For more on TD Olga's path see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200117.html

BESSI-BAKO

Tropical Cyclone Bessi continues in the South Indian Ocean and
is more or less stationary above 18S 86E. This is directly above
ninety-east Ridge under the Indian Ocean, an area where some seismicity
has been know to occur. If Bessi remains stationary, seismicity may
occur within 200 km of her position. This has happened very often
when a tropical storm has stalled over a seismically active region,
and is an especially prominent feature of storm-seismicity interaction
in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico.

For more details see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

December 05 is the twenty-first day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central California MB>=0.0 37 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 18 2.2 0.05
Central US MB>=1.0 79 3.4 0.01
East US MB>=1.0 12 2.2 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 19 2.1 0.05
Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 88 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=0.0 17 2.8 0.02
San Andreas MB>=2.0 64 2.9 0.02
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02

Geysers MB>=0.0 7 2.6 0.03
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 62 2.8 0.02
Utah MB>=0.0 11 2.1 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -19 -2.3 0.05
Global MB>=6.0 -11 -1.9 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 -11 -2.4 0.04

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 4Dec2001 10:36 40.7S 176.2E ML=4.2 IGNS N of Castlepoint, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely to have been felt in Wairarapa

O: 27NOV2001 15:29 32.5S 146.6E Ml=2.8 AGSO Condobolin, NSW Australia

O: 29NOV2001 18:09 34.0S 148.2E Ml=2.3 AGSO Bribbaree, NSW Australia

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 03Dec2001 11:32:33 16.4S 177.5W MW=6.4 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION

O: 02Dec2001 21:40:54 5.9S 152.2E MB=4.1 NEIS NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

ASIA

O: 03Dec2001 23:23:15 17.4N 145.6E MB=4.5 NEIS MARIANA ISLANDS

O: 04Dec2001 18:09:37 19.1N 120.3E mb=5.7 GSR PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
O: 04Dec2001 18:09:25 18.8N 120.3E MS=5.2 GSR LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

O: 04DEC2001 07:19:13 03.0N 098.6E Mb=5.0 ASC Northern Sumatera, Indonesia

O: 02DEC2001 22:41:14 27.1N 088.2E Mb=4.9 ASC NE of Naya Bazar (Sikkim)

O: 02DEC2001 11:00:34 31.8N 086.7E Mb=4.4 ASC SW of Lhazhong (Xizang),

O: 01DEC2001 02:26 36.1N 139.0E Mj=4.2 NIED WESTERN_SAITAMA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 03DEC2001 18:10:30 8.7S 115.6E SR=5.2 AEIC1 E NUSAPENIDA, INDONESIA
O: 03DEC2001 10:03:40 9.4S 116.1E SR=5.4 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA

O: 03DEC2001 09:13:00 9.4S 117.5E SR=5.3 AEIC1 SUMBAWABESAR, INDONESIA
O: 03DEC2001 02:45:20 11.4S 117.6E SR=4.7 AEIC1 SW WAIKABUBAK, INDONESIA
O: 02DEC2001 21:06:10 9.6S 117.5E SR=4.7 AEIC1 SUMBAWABESAR, INDONESIA

O: 03Dec2001 05:30:09 9.7N 126.4E HN=0.0 NEIS MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

O: 03Dec2001 18:07:28 45.8N 148.0E MB=4.3 NEIS KURIL ISLANDS

O: 04Dec2001 07:19:26 3.7N 97.6E MB=5.0 NEIS N SUMATERA, INDONESIA

O: 04Dec2001 18:09:26 19.0N 120.2E MB=5.4 NEIS LUZON, PHILIPPINES

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 04Dec2001 07:17:53 26.1S 70.7W MB=4.7 NEIS NEAR COAST OF N CHILE

O: 04Dec2001 05:57:14 15.4S 72.8W MB=5.2 IGP Chuquibamba,Cotahuasi, PERU
O: 04Dec2001 05:57:18 16.3S 74.3W MS=5.7 GSR NEAR COAST OF PERU
Note: This event occurred at 142 degrees from the Honshu earthquake
in an area where the FFA forecast had indicated triggering was highly
likely at the shadow zone edge of the inner-outer core boundary:

"142-146 degrees: So. Peru (14-19S)"

O: 04DEC2001 07:17:53 27.0S 70.9W ML=4.6 DGF NW of CHAPARAL, CHILE

O: 02Dec2001 21:44:34 20.8S 69.1W MB=4.4 NEIS NORTHERN CHILE

O: 04DEC2001 09:16:59 17.0N 100.1W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 04DEC2001 09:04:52 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 04DEC2001 02:24:02 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 03DEC2001 23:30:48 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.6 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 03DEC2001 22:05:06 16.9N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 04DEC2001 06:09:24 15.8N 97.1W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA, MEXICO
Note: This event occurred at 103 degrees from Honshu, a distance and in
a region where FFA were expected after that event as noted in the forecast:

"103-107 degrees***: Chiapas, Mexico,"

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 4DEC2001 12:23:58 38.6N 43.6E ML=3.0 KAN VAN, TURKEY
O: 4DEC2001 9:52:13 38.5N 43.1E ML=3.2 KAN VAN, TURKEY
O: 4DEC2001 9:43:11 38.6N 43.2E ML=4.0 KAN VAN, TURKEY
O: 4DEC2001 9:40:27 38.7N 43.5E ML=4.1 KAN VAN, TURKEY
O: 4DEC2001 9:34:35 38.5N 43.1E ML=3.1 KAN VAN, TURKEY
Note: This swarm occurred at 72 degrees from the Honshu mainshock, at
a distance and region where FFA were expected in the forecast:

"71-73 degrees: ... Eastern Turkey,"

O: 03DEC2001 18:51:31 37.6N 20.8E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE

O: 03DEC2001 20:40:20 39.5N 26.2E ML=3.6 NOA GREECE

O: 01DEC2001 21:14:24 56.7N 5.1W ML=1.3 BGS BALLACHULISH,HIGHLAND, ENGLAND

O: 03DEC2001 09:53:13 42.6N 1.9E ML=2.8 STR SSE FOIX, FRANCE

O: 03DEC2001 12:20:48 41.5N 0.7E ML=2.7 STR ESPAGNE (REGION DE LERIDA

OCEANIA

O: 03Dec2001 17:19:55 58.3S 26.4W MB=4.5 NEIS SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

O: 04Dec2001 07:22:20 59.2S 150.6W MB=5.0 NEIS PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 03Dec2001 23:05:33 38.3N 122.3W MD=2.8 NEIS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

O: 4DEC2001 6:07:42 37.0N 117.5W ML=1.8 NCSN WSW of Scottys Castle, CA
O: 4DEC2001 6:03:49 36.9N 117.5W ML=2.1 NCSN WSW of Scottys Castle, CA

O: 04DEC2001 8:08:57 34.4N 117.9W ML=1.7 SCSN SE of Palmdale, CA

O: 4DEC2001 7:53:50 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NNW of The Geysers, CA
O: 4DEC2001 7:51:33 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NNW of The Geysers, CA

O: 04DEC2001 15:57:58 33.2N 115.5W ML=2.2 SCSN NNW of Calipatria, CA

O: 04DEC2001 15:31:07 36.8N 117.9W ML=2.6 NCSN NNE of Lone Pine, CA

O: 04DEC2001 13:28:02 35.3N 118.6W ML=1.5 SCSN ENE of Arvin, CA
O: 04DEC2001 13:09:15 35.3N 118.6W ML=1.4 SCSN ENE of Arvin, CA

O: 04DEC2001 9:35:12 37.1N 121.5W ML=1.6 NCSN NE of San Martin, CA

O: 04DEC2001 9:04:06 40.9N 123.5W ML=2.3 NCSN ESE of Willow Creek, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 4DEC2001 4:33:10 48.3N 122.6W ML=2.1 PNSN SW of Mount Vernon, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 04DEC2001 12:57:20 43.5N 111.1W ML=2.3 USBR SW of Victor, ID

O: 04DEC2001 15:22:03 46.5N 112.4W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA

O: 02DEC2001 19:21:55 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.3 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 19:10:21 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.2 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 18:11:05 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.1 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:54:31 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.5 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:52:15 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.3 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:41:56 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.7 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:34:56 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.4 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:19:58 44.8N 111.0W ML=0.7 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 17:17:51 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.8 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 16:25:43 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.0 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 16:17:01 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.1 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 15:42:36 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.5 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 15:37:52 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.2 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 15:31:06 44.8N 111.0W ML=0.9 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 04DEC2001 13:18:33 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.7 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 04DEC2001 9:33:11 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.2 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 15:29:40 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.2 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 15:04:45 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.1 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 14:59:32 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.7 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 14:21:33 44.8N 111.0W ML=2.0 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 02DEC2001 13:34:25 44.6N 110.6W ML=1.8 UUSN SSE of Norris Junc., WY
O: 04DEC2001 16:14:03 46.4N 110.1W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 16:05:22 45.4N 110.6W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 15:37:31 44.7N 111.0W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 14:56:33 44.8N 111.0W MD=0.5 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 13:59:49 44.7N 111.0W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 13:18:34 44.8N 111.0W MD=1.4 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 11:58:10 44.7N 111.0W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 09:37:20 45.0N 110.9W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 09:33:17 45.0N 111.6W MD=1.6 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 09:32:54 45.6N 110.4W MD=1.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 06:14:01 45.8N 111.3W MD=0.7 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 06:11:32 45.3N 110.7W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 05:18:54 45.2N 110.8W MD=1.1 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 05:15:42 45.3N 110.7W MD=0.4 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 05:09:02 45.4N 110.7W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 04:01:59 45.3N 110.0W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA
O: 04DEC2001 03:58:31 45.2N 110.8W MD=0.2 MBMG MONTANA
O: 03DEC2001 21:25:00 45.3N 110.8W MD=0.2 MBMG MONTANA
O: 03DEC2001 21:19:51 44.8N 111.0W MD=0.4 MBMG MONTANA

O: 04DEC2001 03:21:44 45.7N 113.0W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 01DEC2001 21:18:22 35.3N 84.3W ML=2.5 JIEE WNW of Tellico Plains, TN
Note: This is the second event in this region in the past 3 days, (the
first was Ml 2.4 on Nov. 28). These events lie at 107 degrees from the
Kunlun Mts. mainshock at a distance and region where strong FFA was
expected to occur.

O: 04Dec2001 18:20:09 38.8N 107.4W ML=3.1 NEIS COLORADO

ALASKA

O: 04DEC2001 05:24:28 62.3N 149.0W ML=3.3 AEIC E of Talkeetna, Alaska