EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING RESEARCH GROUP NEEDED
December 3, 2001

The science of forecasting earthquakes through the analysis of "earthquake sensitivity" type warning signals appears to me to now be sufficiently advanced that I am recommending that a formal research group be established in order to take advantage of that type of information along with some other types of earthquake precursor data. I personally find it frustrating to read many of the notes being posted to this bulletin board because some of the earthquake sensitives with whom I have talked or to whom I am presently talking could be quite advanced with regard to their understanding of how to interpret things such as "ear tones." But those people are not posting notes to this bulletin board. And it would be virtually impossible for me to try to discuss all of the things that they have told me. This is such a complex subject. And there are so many data available.

Perhaps the best way to make some progress at this time would be to have a formal group begin working on this. And what I suggest is that other people who also feel that the establishment of such a group could be worthwhile discuss this subject matter with university and/or independent researchers whom they might know.

This is not as easy as it might sound. During the past five years I myself have probably contacted some 200 to 400 government agencies, research groups, and private researchers around the world without being able to interest any of them in such an effort. But this particular approach to forecasting earthquakes has I feel now progressed quite a bit since the last time I made such an effort.

EXISTING EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAMS

If that type of research program were to get established then the people involved would need a starting point.

At the moment there is a vast earthquake forecasting program running in the People’s Republic of China. I have heard that it involves some 10.000 full-time people and probably a small army of volunteer data collectors. However, forecasters working for that government do not appear to be me to be especially interested in talking with researchers in other countries.

United Nations personnel are running a modest but active earthquake forecasting program. It is unfortunately limited by the fact that it relies on donations for its existence.

There are a number of research groups in Greece which probably also work with limited amounts of funding.

Here in the U.S. there are two people (other than myself) who look like they may be having some success with their earthquake forecasting programs though I myself cannot tell if that is actually the case. One of them posts forecasts to this bulletin board. The other person maintains the following Web site:

http://www.earthquakeforecast.com

At this time both appear to me to be waiting for the right moment to go public with the details of how they forecast earthquake. Or perhaps they intend to license their technology to some private organization or government agency.

If this proposed earthquake forecasting research group does get established then its researchers could get started by using the sun, moon, and ocean tide crest and trough location based procedure which I myself am using to process earthquake precursor data. I am finding that it produces good results for my own data. And it looked to me like it worked for data sent to me by Canie. So I will assume that it should work for some other people’s data. And if and when the other forecasters make the details of their own procedures public then the people running that proposed research group could try using those approaches as well.

"Far field," geomagnetic storm, and hurricane related wind drag types of data might also be used if they can be made to work.

FUNDING FOR THAT PROPOSED RESEARCH GROUP

I suspect that it would actually not be that difficult for a formal research group to get some reasonable amount of funding. For example,

It appears to me that it is either the official or the unofficial policy of the government of Japan that earthquakes cannot be predicted. Yet I believe that in the fairly recent past that government gave one researcher in that country perhaps $150,000 to $250,000 to study the ability of animals to sense that an earthquake is approaching.

The keys to getting that type of funding may be:

1. A good sense of direction.
2. Diplomacy.

It would be my expectation that this type of research might have to be done by some university research group. And even then the subject matter could be sufficiently controversial that the group involved would have to be parapsychology oriented. Unfortunately, I have the impression that few parapsychologists if any are interested in something as practical as forecasting earthquakes. But, there may be some people out there who are.

These are my personal opinions.