By the way, Don and Petra, I wonder if you recall that Don had a prediction
outstanding for that Alder Springs event that suddenly appeared this afternoon
on the maps and listings.

On Nov. 14 Don had forecast an event for Alder Springs (# 10956)

NCSN is reporting the following parameters for this event:

O: 26NOV2001 18:20:20 39.7N 122.8W ML=3.2 NCSN NW of Alder Springs, CA

Don's forecast had been for:

P: 16-20NOV 40 km 39.9N 122.6W Ml 2.4-3.7 Alder Springs, CA

The forecast correctly identified the location (the event is 27 km
from the forecast epicenter) and magnitude range - the earthquake magnitude
of Ml 3.2 was in the middle of the expected range. To spoil, the forecast,
however, the event occurred 6 days later than the end of the time window.

Probability:

During the past year there have been 11 11-day intervals in which
an event occurred which would have matched Don's forecast, 3 of which
contained an event of Ml>=3. In the same period there have been 33
such 11-day periods, so the probability of random success starting
with the first day of Don's forecast and including the Alder Springs
event is about 11/33 = 0.33 or odds of 1 in 3 for a successful random
forecast. Had Don chosen to limit his magnitude to 3.0+ his odds of
random success in an 11-day period would have been about 1 in 11.

Don's prediction had been:

Alder Springs, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 14, 2001 at 16:49:28:

Magnitude: 2.4-3.7Md
From: 11/16/2001PST - To: 11/20/2001PST
Location: Alder Springs, California
Lat: 39.9N - Long: 122.6W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Looking for a 2.4 to 3.7Md quake at 39.9N/122.6W. This is about
30Km NNE of Alder Springs. Should occur on 11/18/2001. The window will open
on 11/16/2001 and will close on 11/20/2001. The radius on this will be 40Km.
Take Care...Don in creepy town